Language:English
Deportes Tolima v Nacional de Montevideo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Deportes Tolima (Local)
Prediction 47.67%2.10fair odd
EV +2.01%
Edge +0.940%
Kelly +1.76%
Growth +0.035%
assuming max odds 2.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.27%47.56%47.66%49.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.961.952.1453.76%50.95%51.28%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nacional de Montevideo (Visit)
Prediction 23.24%4.30fair odd
EV +2.28%
Edge +0.517%
Kelly +0.669%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.39%23.34%23.27%25.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.943.904.4027.78%25.38%25.64%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.09%3.44fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.499%
Kelly -0.709%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.08%29.10%29.07%30.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.203.3833.33%31.40%31.25%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportes Tolima (Local): 47.67%; Nacional de Montevideo (Visit): 23.24%; Draw: 29.09%. For Nacional de Montevideo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.71%EV +2.01%E +0.940%K +1.76%G +0.035% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.08%EV -9.35%E -2.40%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.20%EV -2.56%E -0.764%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.71%EV +2.01%E +0.940%K +1.76%G +0.035% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.08%EV -9.35%E -2.40%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.20%EV -2.56%E -0.764%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV +0.104%E +0.050%K +0.095%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -6.92%E -2.16%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.96%EV -1.80%E -0.875%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.47%E -1.68%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-07 01:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.72%EV -2.28%E -1.11%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -12.83%E -3.42%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -6.92%E -2.16%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.72%EV -2.28%E -1.11%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -12.83%E -3.42%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -6.92%E -2.16%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.72%EV -2.28%E -1.11%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -12.83%E -3.42%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -6.92%E -2.16%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.72%EV -2.28%E -1.11%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -12.83%E -3.42%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -6.92%E -2.16%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -2.76%E -1.35%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -14.00%E -3.78%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -6.92%E -2.16%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -4.66%E -2.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.01%E -1.22%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 01:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -4.66%E -2.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -5.47%E -1.68%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 01:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -4.66%E -2.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -16.32%E -4.53%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.83%E -3.17%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -4.66%E -2.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -16.32%E -4.53%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.83%E -3.17%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -4.66%E -2.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -16.32%E -4.53%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.83%E -3.17%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.31%EV -5.62%E -2.84%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.02%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.92%E -2.16%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.83%EV -6.09%E -3.09%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.13I 24.21%NM 22.82%EV -4.00%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.35%EV -6.63%E -2.07%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-07 01:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.98%EV -6.57%E -3.35%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 4.36I 22.94%NM 22.02%EV +1.35%E +0.309%K +0.401%G +0.005% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.00%EV -3.72%E -1.12%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.81%EV -7.05%E -3.61%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV +2.28%E +0.517%K +0.669%G +0.015% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.56%EV -6.34%E -1.97%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.81%EV -7.05%E -3.61%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV +2.28%E +0.517%K +0.669%G +0.015% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.56%EV -6.34%E -1.97%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -7.05%E -3.61%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -4.70%E -1.15%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.01%E -1.22%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 01:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -7.05%E -3.61%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -4.70%E -1.15%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.01%E -1.22%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -7.05%E -3.61%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -7.02%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -5.47%E -1.68%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -7.05%E -3.61%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.02%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.92%E -2.16%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -7.05%E -3.61%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -7.02%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -8.38%E -2.66%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -7.05%E -3.61%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -12.83%E -3.42%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.92%E -2.16%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-07 01:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.32%EV -7.52%E -3.88%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.54%EV -9.35%E -2.40%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.38%E -2.66%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.35%EV -8.00%E -4.14%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -3.54%E -0.852%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.92%E -2.16%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.48%EV -8.48%E -4.41%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -3.54%E -0.852%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.92%E -2.16%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.48%EV -8.48%E -4.41%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -3.54%E -0.852%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.92%E -2.16%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -8.48%E -4.41%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -10.51%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -5.47%E -1.68%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.95%E -4.69%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -0.049%E -0.011%K -0.015%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.18%EV -6.63%E -2.07%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 01:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -8.95%E -4.69%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.02%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.83%E -3.17%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -8.95%E -4.69%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.02%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.83%E -3.17%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -8.95%E -4.69%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.02%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.83%E -3.17%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -8.95%E -4.69%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.02%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.83%E -3.17%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.95%E -4.69%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.00%E -3.78%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.83%E -3.17%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-07 01:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.95%E -4.69%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.00%E -3.78%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.83%E -3.17%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-07 01:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.95%E -4.69%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.00%E -3.78%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.83%E -3.17%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-07 01:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.95%E -4.69%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.00%E -3.78%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.83%E -3.17%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-07 01:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.95%EV -9.43%E -4.96%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.97%EV +0.416%E +0.096%K +0.125%G +0.001% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.08%EV -1.69%E -0.499%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.74%EV -9.43%E -4.96%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.39%EV +0.649%E +0.150%K +0.195%G +0.001% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.83%E -3.17%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.84%EV -9.43%E -4.96%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 23.13%EV -8.65%E -2.20%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 29.04%EV -8.96%E -2.86%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-07 01:48 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.51%EV -10.38%E -5.52%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -14.00%E -3.78%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -8.38%E -2.66%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -10.86%E -5.81%K -12.48%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -2.37%E -0.565%K -0.742%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -12.74%E -4.25%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.41%EV -11.34%E -6.09%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.39%EV -12.74%E -4.25%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-07 01:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.19% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66% | 0.6% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.19% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66% | 0.6% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.19% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66% | 0.6% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.00% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.30% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.70% | 2.0% | 2026-05-07 01:55 |