Language:English
Corinthians-SP v Peñarol Montevideo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Corinthians-SP (Local)
Prediction 58.41%1.71fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -6.58%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.33%58.85%58.24%63.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.551.581.6469.93%64.53%63.29%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Peñarol Montevideo (Visit)
Prediction 15.47%6.46fair odd
EV +23.77%
Edge +2.97%
Kelly +3.40%
Growth +0.807%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.17%15.17%15.66%17.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.906.336.008.0020.41%15.80%16.67%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.12%3.83fair odd
EV +7.09%
Edge +1.73%
Kelly +2.29%
Growth +0.162%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.83%25.98%26.10%27.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.603.554.1031.25%27.80%28.17%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Corinthians-SP (Local): 58.41%; Peñarol Montevideo (Visit): 15.47%; Draw: 26.12%. For Peñarol Montevideo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.46. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.77%.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.92%EV -10.63%E -6.95%K -20.06%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.22%EV +23.77%E +2.97%K +3.40%G +0.807% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.85%EV +7.09%E +1.73%K +2.29%G +0.162% | 2.2% | 2026-04-17 13:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.92%EV -10.63%E -6.95%K -20.06%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.22%EV +23.77%E +2.97%K +3.40%G +0.807% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.85%EV +7.09%E +1.73%K +2.29%G +0.162% | 2.2% | 2026-04-17 14:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.61%EV -13.55%E -9.16%K -28.24%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV +16.04%E +2.14%K +2.47%G +0.396% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV +3.17%E +0.803%K +1.07%G +0.034% | 6.2% | 2026-04-17 13:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.58%EV -14.14%E -9.62%K -30.08%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV +16.04%E +2.14%K +2.47%G +0.396% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV +1.86%E +0.478%K +0.643%G +0.012% | 7.0% | 2026-04-17 14:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.58%EV -14.14%E -9.62%K -30.08%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV +16.04%E +2.14%K +2.47%G +0.396% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV +1.86%E +0.478%K +0.643%G +0.012% | 7.0% | 2026-04-17 13:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.58%EV -14.14%E -9.62%K -30.08%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV +16.04%E +2.14%K +2.47%G +0.396% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV +1.86%E +0.478%K +0.643%G +0.012% | 7.0% | 2026-04-17 14:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.58%EV -14.14%E -9.62%K -30.08%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV +16.04%E +2.14%K +2.47%G +0.396% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV +1.86%E +0.478%K +0.643%G +0.012% | 7.0% | 2026-04-17 14:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.58%EV -14.14%E -9.62%K -30.08%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV +16.04%E +2.14%K +2.47%G +0.396% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV +1.86%E +0.478%K +0.643%G +0.012% | 7.0% | 2026-04-17 13:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.82%EV -16.48%E -11.52%K -38.31%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV +16.04%E +2.14%K +2.47%G +0.396% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -0.747%E -0.197%K -0.267%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-17 13:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.82%EV -16.48%E -11.52%K -38.31%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV +16.04%E +2.14%K +2.47%G +0.396% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -0.747%E -0.197%K -0.267%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-17 13:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.82%EV -16.48%E -11.52%K -38.31%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV +16.04%E +2.14%K +2.47%G +0.396% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -0.747%E -0.197%K -0.267%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-17 13:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.47%EV -6.55%E -4.09%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.10%EV +4.44%E +0.657%K +0.771%G +0.034% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.43%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 17:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.61%EV -8.30%E -5.29%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +0.567%E +0.087%K +0.103%G +0.001% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-21 17:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.01%EV -7.71%E -4.88%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.35%EV +0.567%E +0.087%K +0.103%G +0.001% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-21 17:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.71%EV -8.30%E -5.29%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +0.567%E +0.087%K +0.103%G +0.001% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-21 17:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.99%EV -4.79%E -2.94%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 6.43I 15.55%NM 14.95%EV -0.516%E -0.080%K -0.095%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.06%EV -3.62%E -0.981%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-22 08:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.17%EV -7.13%E -4.48%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 6.37I 15.70%NM 14.77%EV -1.44%E -0.227%K -0.269%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.06%EV -5.71%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-21 16:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.03%EV -7.71%E -4.88%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -3.30%E -0.528%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.05%EV -6.49%E -1.81%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-22 08:28 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.78%EV -8.88%E -5.69%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.79%EV -4.07%E -0.657%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 26.43%EV -9.37%E -2.70%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-24 03:02 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.05%EV -4.21%E -2.57%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%EV -4.66%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 17:07 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.55%E -4.09%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-21 16:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -10.63%E -6.95%K -20.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-21 17:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.08%EV -6.55%E -4.09%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -8.72%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -7.28%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 22:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.08%EV -6.55%E -4.09%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -8.72%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -7.28%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 22:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.26%EV -6.55%E -4.09%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.80%EV -10.26%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.95%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-21 17:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.90%EV -5.96%E -3.70%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -11.04%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-21 17:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -6.55%E -4.09%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -11.04%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-24 00:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.93%EV -7.71%E -4.88%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.92%EV -11.04%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-21 18:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.18%EV -6.55%E -4.09%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.91%EV -11.04%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-21 17:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.18%EV -6.55%E -4.09%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.91%EV -11.04%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-21 17:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.18%EV -6.55%E -4.09%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.91%EV -11.04%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-21 17:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 57.71%EV -11.22%E -7.38%K -21.57%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.95%EV -14.90%E -2.71%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 26.34%EV -13.02%E -3.91%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-22 07:11 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.33%EV -6.55%E -4.09%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.17%EV -18.77%E -3.58%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-21 16:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.33%EV -6.55%E -4.09%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.17%EV -18.77%E -3.58%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-21 16:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.33%EV -6.55%E -4.09%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.17%EV -18.77%E -3.58%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-21 16:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.33%EV -6.55%E -4.09%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.17%EV -18.77%E -3.58%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-21 16:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 57.07%EV -12.97%E -8.71%K -26.47%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.35%EV -19.55%E -3.76%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.57%EV -16.42%E -5.13%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 17.6% | 2026-04-21 17:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 57.30%EV -11.22%E -7.38%K -21.57%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.08%EV -21.09%E -4.14%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.62%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-21 17:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 56.51%EV -12.97%E -8.71%K -26.47%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.18%EV -24.19%E -4.94%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.31%EV -16.42%E -5.13%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 18.8% | 2026-04-21 17:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.08% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.28% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64% | 13.8% | 2026-04-24 00:04 |