The School of Odds
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Toluca v León

Kickoff: 2026-09-01 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toluca (Local)

Prediction 45.46%2.20fair odd
EV -5.44%
Edge -2.61%
Kelly -5.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.35%45.46%45.78%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.002.002.0851.28%49.92%50.00%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

León (Visit)

Prediction 29.26%3.42fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.54%29.26%29.30%29.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.113.103.2533.33%32.14%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.28%3.96fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.698%
Kelly -0.943%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.78%25.28%24.92%26.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.563.603.8529.41%28.08%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 45.46%; León (Visit): 29.26%; Draw: 25.28%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -2.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.87%EV -5.44%E -2.61%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.90%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -2.69%E -0.698%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-28 08:21
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.07%E -4.54%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.90%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -6.48%E -1.75%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-28 09:45
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -9.07%E -4.54%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.37%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -6.48%E -1.75%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-28 08:21
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -9.07%E -4.54%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.37%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-28 08:19
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -9.07%E -4.54%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -12.22%E -4.07%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.06%E -4.14%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-28 08:05
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -9.07%E -4.54%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -12.22%E -4.07%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.06%E -4.14%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-28 08:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -9.07%E -4.54%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -12.22%E -4.07%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.06%E -4.14%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-28 08:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -9.07%E -4.54%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -12.22%E -4.07%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.06%E -4.14%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-28 08:05
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -11.35%E -5.82%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.29%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-28 11:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 20.63%1.04I 96.15%NM 39.68%1.04I 96.15%NM 39.68%142.3%2026-08-27 21:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 20.63%1.04I 96.15%NM 39.68%1.04I 96.15%NM 39.68%142.3%2026-08-27 21:51
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 20.39%1.04I 96.15%NM 39.22%1.01I 99.01%NM 40.39%145.2%2026-08-27 21:50