Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toluca v León

2026-08-31 23:00 UTC — Leagues Cup

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

47%

28%

25%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toluca (Local)

Prediction 47.28%2.12fair odd

EV +0.236%

Edge +0.111%

Kelly +0.211%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.65%47.28%47.28%47.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.062.062.1250.00%48.54%48.54%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

León (Visit)

Prediction 27.57%3.63fair odd

EV -5.44%

Edge -1.59%

Kelly -2.24%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.57%27.57%27.57%30.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.023.233.233.4333.11%31.01%31.01%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.15%3.98fair odd

EV -5.44%

Edge -1.45%

Kelly -1.97%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.15%25.15%25.15%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.603.683.683.7627.78%27.17%27.17%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Toluca (Local): 47.28%; León (Visit): 27.57%; Draw: 25.15%. For Toluca (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.115. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.120, producing a positive expected value of +0.236%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.12I 47.17%NM 43.65%EV +0.236%E +0.111%K +0.211%G +0.000%	3.02I 33.11%NM 30.64%EV -16.74%E -5.54%K -8.29%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -9.46%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-08-27 10:10
Pinnacle🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.28%EV -5.44%E -2.72%K -5.44%G +0.000%	3.43I 29.15%NM 27.57%EV -5.44%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000%	3.76I 26.60%NM 25.15%EV -5.44%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-27 11:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.