The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Toluca v León

Kickoff: 2026-08-31 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toluca (Local)

Prediction 48.78%2.05fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.69%48.78%48.78%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.941.971.982.0051.55%50.68%50.51%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

León (Visit)

Prediction 25.37%3.94fair odd
EV -5.37%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.37%25.37%25.37%28.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.463.403.7330.77%28.90%29.41%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.85%3.87fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.462%
Kelly -0.626%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.57%25.85%25.85%25.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.663.733.743.8027.32%26.79%26.74%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 48.78%; León (Visit): 25.37%; Draw: 25.85%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -1.75%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -2.45%E -1.22%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -17.55%E -5.40%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -1.75%E -0.462%K -0.626%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 00:52
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.35%EV -3.42%E -1.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -13.75%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.07%EV -3.30%E -0.884%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-28 06:55
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.78%EV -5.37%E -2.77%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.37%EV -5.37%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.85%EV -5.37%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 07:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.