Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Salt Lake v Atlante FC

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 02:00 UTC

Final: Real Salt Lake 4–0 Atlante FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Salt Lake (Local)

Prediction 59.27%1.69fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -3.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.75%59.17%59.37%60.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.551.6566.67%63.98%64.52%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlante FC (Visit)

Prediction 19.00%5.26fair odd
EV -0.254%
Edge -0.048%
Kelly -0.060%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.85%19.02%18.94%20.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.925.005.2522.73%20.31%20.00%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.73%4.60fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.244%
Kelly -0.313%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.84%21.81%21.68%23.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.254.344.5526.32%23.52%23.04%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Salt Lake (Local): 59.27%; Atlante FC (Visit): 19.00%; Draw: 21.73%. For Atlante FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.25, with an expected value of -0.254%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.60%EV -2.21%E -1.34%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.75%EV -12.98%E -2.83%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.65%EV -4.59%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 01:54
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.10%EV -3.99%E -2.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.15%EV -5.00%E -1.00%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.76%EV -4.37%E -0.993%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 01:50
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.58%EV -3.99%E -2.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -14.50%E -3.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -6.54%E -1.52%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 01:54
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.56%EV -4.58%E -2.84%K -7.51%G +0.000%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.69%EV -2.53%E -0.494%K -0.614%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.74%EV -4.15%E -0.942%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-09 01:50
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.60%EV -5.17%E -3.23%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.33%EV -7.85%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -7.63%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 01:50
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.60%EV -5.17%E -3.23%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.33%EV -7.85%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -7.63%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 01:50
Dabble (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -5.17%E -3.23%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -5.00%E -1.00%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -13.06%E -3.27%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 01:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.97%EV -5.77%E -3.63%K -9.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -5.00%E -1.00%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.96%EV -1.11%E -0.244%K -0.313%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-09 01:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.97%EV -5.77%E -3.63%K -9.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -5.00%E -1.00%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.96%EV -1.11%E -0.244%K -0.313%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-09 01:50
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.55%EV -5.77%E -3.63%K -9.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -5.00%E -1.00%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -4.37%E -0.993%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 01:28
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.24%EV -6.36%E -4.02%K -10.96%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -0.254%E -0.048%K -0.060%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -4.37%E -0.993%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 20:04
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -6.95%E -4.43%K -12.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.00%E -1.00%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -6.54%E -1.52%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 01:54
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.79%EV -6.95%E -4.43%K -12.19%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -8.80%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.72%E -2.08%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 01:49
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -6.95%E -4.43%K -12.19%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -9.75%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -13.06%E -3.27%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 01:55
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -6.95%E -4.43%K -12.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -14.50%E -3.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -17.41%E -4.58%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 01:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -6.95%E -4.43%K -12.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -14.50%E -3.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -17.41%E -4.58%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 01:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -6.95%E -4.43%K -12.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -14.50%E -3.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -17.41%E -4.58%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 01:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -7.54%E -4.84%K -13.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -0.254%E -0.048%K -0.060%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -7.63%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.20%EV -7.54%E -4.84%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -14.50%E -3.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.72%E -2.08%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 01:50
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:49
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:49
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:50
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:49
TABtouch🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:50
Bally Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -5.46%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 01:45
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.40%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.18%EV -8.80%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%EV -6.54%E -1.52%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-09 01:50
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.79%EV -8.14%E -5.25%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -8.80%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -10.89%E -2.66%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 01:49
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.45%EV -8.73%E -5.67%K -16.16%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.90%EV -1.20%E -0.232%K -0.287%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -6.54%E -1.52%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 01:50
Fliff🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.14%EV -8.73%E -5.67%K -16.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -9.75%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -8.72%E -2.08%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 01:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.95%EV -8.73%E -5.67%K -16.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.28%EV -16.40%E -3.73%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -10.89%E -2.66%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-09 01:50
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.82%EV -8.73%E -5.67%K -16.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -12.60%E -2.74%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -15.24%E -3.91%K -5.25%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 22:59
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.24%EV -9.32%E -6.09%K -17.59%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.81%EV -6.90%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -4.37%E -0.993%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 01:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.93%EV -9.32%E -6.09%K -17.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -12.60%E -2.74%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -8.72%E -2.08%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-09 01:50
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.68%EV -9.32%E -6.09%K -17.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -14.50%E -3.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -8.72%E -2.08%K -2.72%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-09 01:49
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.97%EV -9.32%E -6.09%K -17.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.28%EV -12.60%E -2.74%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.74%EV -15.24%E -3.91%K -5.25%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-08 20:14
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.16%EV -11.10%E -7.40%K -22.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.00%EV -9.75%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.84%EV -5.89%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-09 01:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.30%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04%1.1%2026-08-09 01:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.30%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04%1.1%2026-08-09 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.30%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04%1.1%2026-08-09 01:50
Smarkets1.63I 61.35%NM 60.45%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.59%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.96%1.5%2026-08-09 01:55