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New York City FC v Santos Laguna
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
New York City FC (Local)
Prediction 54.85%1.82fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -3.79%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.94%55.08%54.78%59.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.641.621.7764.94%60.90%61.73%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Santos Laguna (Visit)
Prediction 20.89%4.79fair odd
EV +4.86%
Edge +0.969%
Kelly +1.21%
Growth +0.059%
assuming max odds 5.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.91%20.77%21.03%22.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.564.605.0225.00%21.91%21.74%19.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.26%4.12fair odd
EV +5.54%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.092%
assuming max odds 4.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.58%24.14%24.19%26.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.963.904.3529.41%25.23%25.64%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York City FC (Local): 54.85%; Santos Laguna (Visit): 20.89%; Draw: 24.26%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.12. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.54%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.87%EV -11.69%E -7.26%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV +2.36%E +0.481%K +0.604%G +0.014% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%EV +5.54%E +1.27%K +1.65%G +0.092% | 5.5% | 2026-08-06 23:36 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.94%EV -13.34%E -8.44%K -23.00%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV +4.33%E +1.01%K +1.31%G +0.057% | 7.4% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.94%EV -13.34%E -8.44%K -23.00%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV +4.33%E +1.01%K +1.31%G +0.057% | 7.4% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -13.89%E -8.85%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV +4.33%E +1.01%K +1.31%G +0.057% | 7.8% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -13.89%E -8.85%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV +4.33%E +1.01%K +1.31%G +0.057% | 7.8% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -13.89%E -8.85%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV +4.33%E +1.01%K +1.31%G +0.057% | 7.8% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -13.89%E -8.85%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV +4.33%E +1.01%K +1.31%G +0.057% | 7.8% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -13.89%E -8.85%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV +4.33%E +1.01%K +1.31%G +0.057% | 7.8% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -13.89%E -8.85%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV +4.33%E +1.01%K +1.31%G +0.057% | 7.8% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -13.89%E -8.85%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV +4.33%E +1.01%K +1.31%G +0.057% | 7.8% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -13.89%E -8.85%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV +4.33%E +1.01%K +1.31%G +0.057% | 7.8% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -13.89%E -8.85%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV +4.33%E +1.01%K +1.31%G +0.057% | 7.8% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -13.89%E -8.85%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV +4.33%E +1.01%K +1.31%G +0.057% | 7.8% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -13.89%E -8.85%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV +4.33%E +1.01%K +1.31%G +0.057% | 7.8% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.52%EV -12.79%E -8.04%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.59%EV -0.776%E -0.163%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV +3.11%E +0.733%K +0.958%G +0.030% | 7.5% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.95%EV -13.89%E -8.85%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.28%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV +3.11%E +0.733%K +0.958%G +0.030% | 8.1% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.06%EV -6.21%E -3.63%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.97%EV +0.268%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.97%EV -2.95%E -0.738%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-06 23:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.77%EV -5.11%E -2.95%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -2.95%E -0.738%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-06 23:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.96%EV -12.24%E -7.65%K -20.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -2.95%E -0.738%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-06 23:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -6.21%E -3.63%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.38%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-06 23:31 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.02%EV -7.31%E -4.32%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -5.38%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -11.69%E -7.26%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.32%EV -5.38%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-06 23:33 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.06%EV -3.47%E -1.97%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 4.47I 22.37%NM 21.29%EV -6.63%E -1.48%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.65%EV -6.35%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-06 23:26 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.06%EV -3.47%E -1.97%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 4.47I 22.37%NM 21.29%EV -6.63%E -1.48%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.65%EV -6.35%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-06 23:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.66%E -3.29%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -7.04%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -6.59%E -1.71%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 23:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.66%E -3.29%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -7.04%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -6.59%E -1.71%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 23:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.28%EV -2.92%E -1.65%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.70%EV -3.07%E -0.663%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 25.02%EV -6.83%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-06 23:26 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.89%EV -6.21%E -3.63%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.80%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-06 23:23 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -8.40%E -5.03%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.80%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-06 23:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.41%EV -7.31%E -4.32%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -7.80%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-06 23:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.56%EV -7.85%E -4.67%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -7.80%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-06 23:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -8.40%E -5.03%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -7.80%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-06 23:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.76%E -3.97%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.02I 19.92%NM 18.91%EV +4.86%E +0.969%K +1.21%G +0.059% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.25%EV -8.77%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 23:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -5.66%E -3.29%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -0.776%E -0.163%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -9.02%E -2.40%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-06 23:35 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -5.66%E -3.29%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -9.02%E -2.40%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-06 23:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.44%EV -11.14%E -6.88%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -16.44%E -4.11%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.52%EV -9.02%E -2.40%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-06 23:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.84%EV -11.14%E -6.88%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -10.23%E -2.77%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-06 23:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -8.95%E -5.39%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.82%EV -11.44%E -3.14%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-06 23:36 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 56.12%EV -15.53%E -10.09%K -28.76%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 19.87%EV -9.13%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.01%EV -12.66%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-08-06 23:36 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.01%EV -11.14%E -6.88%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -14.35%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.65%EV -13.87%E -3.91%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-08-06 23:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.94%EV -8.40%E -5.03%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.00%EV -17.51%E -5.15%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-06 23:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.94%EV -8.40%E -5.03%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.00%EV -17.51%E -5.15%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-06 23:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.94%EV -8.40%E -5.03%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.00%EV -17.51%E -5.15%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-06 23:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.85% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.28% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87% | 1.7% | 2026-08-06 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.85% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.28% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87% | 1.7% | 2026-08-06 23:36 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.99% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.22% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.79% | 2.0% | 2026-08-06 23:36 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.94% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.87% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.18% | 2.7% | 2026-08-06 23:32 |
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