The School of Odds
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Charlotte FC v Pumas

Kickoff: 2026-08-05 01:20 UTC

Final: Charlotte FC 3–0 Pumas

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charlotte FC (Local)

Prediction 32.58%3.07fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.43%32.77%32.79%36.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.702.602.9640.00%36.97%38.46%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pumas (Visit)

Prediction 41.52%2.41fair odd
EV +0.905%
Edge +0.372%
Kelly +0.633%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.59%41.34%41.31%43.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.332.422.4346.51%42.83%41.41%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.89%3.86fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -0.775%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.49%25.89%25.90%27.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.623.703.7530.30%27.63%27.03%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Charlotte FC (Local): 32.58%; Pumas (Visit): 41.52%; Draw: 25.89%. For Pumas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.905%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:14
Bally Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:14
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:15
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:15
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:14
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:14
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV +0.905%E +0.372%K +0.633%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:14
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -15.28%E -5.88%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -0.341%E -0.142%K -0.243%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -5.50%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-05 01:15
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.90%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.60%EV -2.42%E -1.03%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -6.79%E -1.89%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 00:55
NordicBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.66%EV -9.42%E -3.39%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.34%EV -3.66%E -1.58%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.79%E -1.89%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 23:45
Betsson🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.66%EV -9.42%E -3.39%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.34%EV -3.66%E -1.58%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.79%E -1.89%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 23:45
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -3.88%E -1.31%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -4.49%E -1.95%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -11.97%E -3.52%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-05 00:55
Dabble (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -10.39%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -4.49%E -1.95%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.79%E -1.89%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-05 01:15
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -7.14%E -2.50%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.46%EV -6.57%E -2.92%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -14.56%E -4.41%K -6.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-05 00:54
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -8.65%E -3.93%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -14.56%E -4.41%K -6.33%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-05 00:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.43%EV -3.55%E -1.20%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.08%EV -10.31%E -4.77%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.49%EV -5.50%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-05 00:52
LowVig.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.43%EV -3.55%E -1.20%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.08%EV -10.31%E -4.77%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.49%EV -5.50%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-05 00:52
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -3.88%E -1.31%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.14%EV -10.72%E -4.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -5.50%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-05 00:51
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.71%EV -10.72%E -4.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -2.91%E -0.775%K -1.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-05 00:51
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -10.39%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -10.72%E -4.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.97%E -3.52%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-05 00:54
Fliff🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.51%EV -18.54%E -7.42%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.12%EV -10.72%E -4.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.37%EV -11.97%E -3.52%K -4.99%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-05 01:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.14%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.22%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.64%1.9%2026-08-05 01:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.81%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.59%2.1%2026-08-05 01:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.81%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.59%2.1%2026-08-05 01:15
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%3.0%2026-08-05 01:15

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