Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

América v Monterrey

2026-09-03 03:30 UTC — Leagues Cup

Resultado del partido

35 corredores (9 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

América (Local)

Predicción 42.30%2.36momio equitativo
EV -2.72%
Ventaja -1.18%
Kelly -2.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.35%42.64%42.21%46.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.022.192.232.3049.50%45.72%44.84%43.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Monterrey (Visitante)

Predicción 30.99%3.23momio equitativo
EV +8.47%
Ventaja +2.42%
Kelly +3.39%
Crecimiento +0.287%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.97%30.66%31.07%32.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.962.903.5035.71%33.79%34.48%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.71%3.74momio equitativo
EV -3.84%
Ventaja -1.07%
Kelly -1.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.79%26.69%26.72%27.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.483.553.6030.77%28.72%28.17%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: América (Local): 42.30%; Monterrey (Visitante): 30.99%; Empate: 26.71%. Para Monterrey (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.23. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.50, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +8.47%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (35 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -13.29%E -6.48%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV +8.47%E +2.42%K +3.39%G +0.287%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.51%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 13:46
Dabble (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -14.56%E -7.21%K -14.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV +2.27%E +0.689%K +0.989%G +0.022%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -9.18%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-28 13:50
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.95%EV -7.79%E -3.58%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.91%EV -2.99%E -0.957%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -7.84%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 13:50
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -6.95%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -5.47%E -1.79%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.84%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 11:05
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -7.79%E -3.58%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -5.47%E -1.79%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -9.18%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-28 10:54
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -7.79%E -3.58%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -5.47%E -1.79%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -9.18%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-28 10:55
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.02%E -2.34%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.51%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 12:05
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -13.29%E -6.48%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -7.02%E -2.34%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.19%E -4.06%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-28 13:50
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -13.29%E -6.48%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -7.02%E -2.34%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.19%E -4.06%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-28 13:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -13.29%E -6.48%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -7.02%E -2.34%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.19%E -4.06%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-28 13:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -13.29%E -6.48%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -7.02%E -2.34%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.19%E -4.06%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-28 13:50
ReBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.44%EV -9.49%E -4.43%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 30.69%EV -8.26%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.87%EV -9.71%E -2.87%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-28 10:55
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -2.72%E -1.18%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -8.57%E -2.91%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -3.84%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-28 11:19
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.95%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.57%E -2.91%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.84%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 11:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -3.84%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-28 10:55
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:50
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:50
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:50
Bally Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:50
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:55
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 10:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.95%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -3.84%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 11:45
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.11%EV -7.79%E -3.58%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -6.51%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-28 11:19
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.47%EV -5.68%E -2.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -10.74%E -3.73%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -6.51%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-28 10:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.63%EV -11.18%E -5.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.41%EV -11.67%E -4.10%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -7.84%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-28 10:55
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.06%E -4.22%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -13.22%E -4.72%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -6.51%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-28 11:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -13.29%E -6.48%K -12.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.23%EV -13.22%E -4.72%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.11%EV -10.52%E -3.14%K -4.47%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-28 10:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.46I 68.49%NM 40.12%3.05I 32.79%NM 19.20%1.44I 69.44%NM 40.68%70.7%2026-08-28 12:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.46I 68.49%NM 40.12%3.05I 32.79%NM 19.20%1.44I 69.44%NM 40.68%70.7%2026-08-28 12:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.46I 68.49%NM 40.12%3.05I 32.79%NM 19.20%1.44I 69.44%NM 40.68%70.7%2026-08-28 12:30
Smarkets1.42I 70.42%NM 40.43%3.00I 33.33%NM 19.14%1.42I 70.42%NM 40.43%74.2%2026-08-28 12:40
Arbitraje (4 combinaciones) +0.17%Coolbet 2.30 (43.6%) / Caesars 3.50 (28.6%) / Hard Rock Bet 3.60 (27.8%)Ver las 4 combinaciones
América (Local)Monterrey (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Coolbet🎯 2.30 (43.6%)Caesars🎯 3.50 (28.6%)Coolbet🎯 3.60 (27.8%)+0.173%
Coolbet🎯 2.30 (43.6%)Caesars🎯 3.50 (28.6%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 3.60 (27.8%)+0.173%
Coolbet🎯 2.30 (43.6%)Caesars🎯 3.50 (28.6%)FanDuel🎯 3.60 (27.8%)+0.173%
Coolbet🎯 2.30 (43.6%)Caesars🎯 3.50 (28.6%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.60 (27.8%)+0.173%