Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zhejiang v Shanghai SIPG FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 12:00 UTC

Final: Zhejiang 2–4 Shanghai SIPG FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zhejiang (Local)

Prediction 36.10%2.77fair odd
EV +1.08%
Edge +0.385%
Kelly +0.599%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.06%35.87%36.28%36.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.592.602.8043.48%38.57%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shanghai SIPG FC (Visit)

Prediction 39.93%2.50fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -2.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.34%40.18%39.71%43.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.242.252.4049.02%44.58%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.98%4.17fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.594%
Kelly -0.788%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.95%23.95%24.01%24.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.843.804.0727.78%26.03%26.32%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zhejiang (Local): 36.10%; Shanghai SIPG FC (Visit): 39.93%; Draw: 23.98%. For Zhejiang (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV +1.08%E +0.385%K +0.599%G +0.006%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.14%EV -13.76%E -6.37%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -5.30%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV +1.08%E +0.385%K +0.599%G +0.006%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.14%EV -13.76%E -6.37%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -5.30%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 15:29
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV +1.08%E +0.385%K +0.599%G +0.006%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.14%EV -13.76%E -6.37%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -5.30%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 15:30
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV +1.08%E +0.385%K +0.599%G +0.006%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.14%EV -13.76%E -6.37%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -5.30%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 15:35
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV +1.08%E +0.385%K +0.599%G +0.006%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.14%EV -13.76%E -6.37%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -5.30%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 15:40
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV +1.08%E +0.385%K +0.599%G +0.006%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.14%EV -13.76%E -6.37%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -5.30%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 18:25
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -2.53%E -0.938%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.78%EV -16.16%E -7.69%K -14.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -10.09%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-04 12:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -2.53%E -0.938%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.13%EV -17.35%E -8.38%K -16.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.81%EV -10.09%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-04 15:25
1xBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.67%EV -3.25%E -1.21%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.67%EV -6.18%E -2.63%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.66%EV -3.14%E -0.777%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 10:33
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.53%EV -4.34%E -1.64%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -8.17%E -3.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.10%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 15:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.06%EV -4.34%E -1.64%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 42.94%EV -18.55%E -9.09%K -17.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.00%EV -12.49%E -3.42%K -4.71%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-04 15:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.06%EV -4.34%E -1.64%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 42.94%EV -18.55%E -9.09%K -17.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.00%EV -12.49%E -3.42%K -4.71%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-04 15:10
GTbets🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -5.06%E -1.92%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.99%EV -8.17%E -3.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.16%EV -2.42%E -0.594%K -0.788%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-03 00:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -5.06%E -1.92%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -10.17%E -4.52%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.10%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-05 07:09
LowVig.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -5.42%E -2.07%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.52%EV -5.78%E -2.45%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -10.09%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 10:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -5.42%E -2.07%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.52%EV -5.78%E -2.45%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -10.09%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 10:25
Pinnacle🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.41%EV -6.14%E -2.36%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.44%EV -4.18%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.15%EV -6.01%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-05 09:50
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -6.14%E -2.36%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.54%EV -8.17%E -3.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -5.30%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-05 09:52
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.14%E -2.36%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.19%EV -10.17%E -4.52%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -4.10%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-02 15:34
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.14%E -2.36%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.19%EV -10.17%E -4.52%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -4.10%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-02 17:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.14%E -2.36%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.19%EV -10.17%E -4.52%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -4.10%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 12:29
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -6.14%E -2.36%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -12.16%E -5.53%K -10.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -4.10%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-04 12:03
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -6.14%E -2.36%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -10.17%E -4.52%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -10.09%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-02 15:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -6.14%E -2.36%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -10.17%E -4.52%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -11.29%E -3.05%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-05 12:31
Marathon Bet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.67%EV -6.86%E -2.66%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.73%EV -9.77%E -4.32%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -6.49%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-02 15:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.95%E -3.12%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.62%EV -6.18%E -2.63%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -6.49%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 11:35
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -7.95%E -3.12%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.50%EV -6.18%E -2.63%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -7.69%E -2.00%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-05 11:41
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.99%EV -7.95%E -3.12%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -10.17%E -4.52%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.23%EV -5.30%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-02 15:34
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.26%EV -9.03%E -3.58%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.38%EV -7.37%E -3.18%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -10.09%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-05 11:35
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.26%EV -9.03%E -3.58%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.38%EV -7.37%E -3.18%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -10.09%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-05 11:35
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -8.17%E -3.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.89%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-05 11:41
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -8.17%E -3.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.89%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-05 07:55
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -8.17%E -3.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.89%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-05 14:34
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -8.17%E -3.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.89%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-05 15:08
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.20%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -8.17%E -3.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -11.29%E -3.05%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-05 11:56
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.20%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -8.17%E -3.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -11.29%E -3.05%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-05 11:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.20%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -8.17%E -3.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -11.29%E -3.05%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-05 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.20%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -8.17%E -3.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -11.29%E -3.05%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-05 11:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.31%EV -10.47%E -4.22%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 39.67%EV -9.37%E -4.13%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.01%EV -10.09%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-05 11:41
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -11.56%E -4.72%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.96%EV -10.17%E -4.52%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.35%EV -7.69%E -2.00%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-05 11:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.00%EV -11.56%E -4.72%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.83%EV -18.15%E -8.86%K -17.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.17%EV -11.29%E -3.05%K -4.18%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-05 11:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.62%EV -13.36%E -5.57%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.95%EV -12.16%E -5.53%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -10.09%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-05 11:35
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.92%EV -16.97%E -7.38%K -13.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.49%EV -14.16%E -6.59%K -12.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.59%EV -13.69%E -3.80%K -5.26%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-05 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 35.95%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.78%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%3.0%2026-10-05 09:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.23I 81.30%NM 42.70%1.23I 81.30%NM 42.70%3.60I 27.78%NM 14.59%90.4%2026-10-05 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.23I 81.30%NM 42.70%1.23I 81.30%NM 42.70%3.60I 27.78%NM 14.59%90.4%2026-10-05 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.23I 81.30%NM 42.70%1.23I 81.30%NM 42.70%3.60I 27.78%NM 14.59%90.4%2026-10-05 13:00