The School of Odds

Zhejiang v Qingdao Hainiu FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Zhejiang (Local)

Prediction 65.04%1.54fair odd
EV -6.35%
Edge -4.41%
Kelly -14.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.10%65.04%65.10%65.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.401.431.431.4471%70%70%69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Qingdao Hainiu FC (Visit)

Prediction 14.86%6.73fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -0.526%
Kelly -0.621%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.31%14.86%14.80%15.38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.006.156.006.5017%16%17%15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.10%4.97fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -0.948%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.59%20.10%20.10%20.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.334.534.504.7523%22%22%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -6.35%E -4.41%K -14.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -3.42%E -0.526%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -9.53%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-11 04:29
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -6.35%E -4.41%K -14.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.85%E -1.81%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -9.53%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-09 23:40
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -6.35%E -4.41%K -14.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.85%E -1.81%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -9.53%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-09 23:39
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -6.35%E -4.41%K -14.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.85%E -1.81%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -9.53%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-09 23:39
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -6.35%E -4.41%K -14.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.85%E -1.81%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -9.53%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-09 23:39
PointsBet (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.52%EV -7.65%E -5.39%K -18.21%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -7.13%E -1.14%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.59%EV -4.50%E -0.948%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-09 20:29
BetUS1.42I 70.42%NM 65.52%EV -7.65%E -5.39%K -18.21%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -7.13%E -1.14%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.59%EV -4.50%E -0.948%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 17:19
FanDuel1.42I 70.42%NM 65.48%EV -7.65%E -5.39%K -18.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -3.42%E -0.526%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.52%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 04:24
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -8.95%E -6.39%K -22.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -10.85%E -1.81%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -12.95%E -2.99%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-11 08:03
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -8.95%E -6.39%K -22.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -10.85%E -1.81%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -12.95%E -2.99%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-11 10:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.54I 64.94%NM 63.70%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.69%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.61%1.9%2026-07-11 10:35