The School of Odds
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Wuhan Three Towns v Henan FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wuhan Three Towns (Local)

Prediction 31.23%3.20fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.46%31.29%31.23%32.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.963.003.0537.04%33.74%33.33%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Henan FC (Visit)

Prediction 41.81%2.39fair odd
EV -5.93%
Edge -2.63%
Kelly -4.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.52%41.63%41.81%42.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.192.202.2547.62%45.62%45.45%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.96%3.71fair odd
EV -5.65%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.36%27.09%26.96%28.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.363.403.5030.77%29.76%29.41%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wuhan Three Towns (Local): 31.23%; Henan FC (Visit): 41.81%; Draw: 26.96%. For Wuhan Three Towns (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.20. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -4.74%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.74%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 08:59
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.74%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 08:59
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.74%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 09:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.74%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 08:59
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.74%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 08:59
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.74%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 08:59
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.74%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 08:59
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.30%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 05:00
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.30%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 05:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.30%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.17%EV -9.27%E -4.27%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -9.69%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-07 09:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -7.87%E -2.67%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.12%EV -10.53%E -4.92%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-07 08:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -7.87%E -2.67%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.12%EV -10.53%E -4.92%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-07 09:00
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.43%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -12.39%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-10 05:30
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.43%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -12.39%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-10 05:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.43%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -12.39%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-10 05:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.43%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -12.39%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-10 05:29
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -10.05%E -3.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -10.11%E -4.70%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-11 08:03
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -10.05%E -3.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -10.11%E -4.70%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-11 10:49
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.22%EV -15.67%E -5.81%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.42%EV -12.20%E -5.81%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-11 10:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.21%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.43%2.0%2026-07-11 10:49

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