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Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC v Shenzhen Peng City FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local)
Prediction 42.04%2.38fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.39%42.02%42.13%43.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3048.78%45.55%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Shenzhen Peng City FC (Visit)
Prediction 29.69%3.37fair odd
EV -0.539%
Edge -0.161%
Kelly -0.229%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.31%29.60%29.76%30.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.093.053.3534.48%32.37%32.79%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.27%3.54fair odd
EV +0.362%
Edge +0.102%
Kelly +0.142%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.92%28.38%28.11%30.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.303.5532.26%30.68%30.30%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local): 42.04%; Shenzhen Peng City FC (Visit): 29.69%; Draw: 28.27%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.362%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.35%EV -7.09%E -3.21%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.66%EV -4.10%E -1.27%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.99%EV +0.362%E +0.102%K +0.142%G +0.001% | 4.4% | 2026-07-04 04:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.48%E -2.06%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -1.05%E -0.300%K -0.421%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 21:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -5.41%E -2.41%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.99%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-04 11:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-03 21:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-03 21:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.87%EV -8.35%E -3.83%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 29.48%EV -5.88%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.65%EV -4.44%E -1.31%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 11:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.48%E -2.06%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -5.29%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-04 11:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.48%E -2.06%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -5.29%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-04 11:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -9.45%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -5.29%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-03 21:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.98%EV -11.72%E -5.58%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -5.29%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-04 11:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.85%EV -3.31%E -1.44%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.17%EV -2.02%E -0.613%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.99%EV -6.14%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-04 11:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -3.51%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-04 11:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.55%EV -6.25%E -2.80%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.38%EV -9.45%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 03:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.55%EV -6.25%E -2.80%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.38%EV -9.45%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 03:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.55%EV -6.25%E -2.80%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.38%EV -9.45%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 03:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.55%EV -6.25%E -2.80%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.38%EV -9.45%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 03:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.55%EV -6.25%E -2.80%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.38%EV -9.45%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 03:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.55%EV -6.25%E -2.80%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.38%EV -9.45%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 03:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.30%EV -8.35%E -3.83%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-04 11:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.30%EV -8.35%E -3.83%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-04 11:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.34%EV -6.25%E -2.80%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-04 03:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.42%EV -8.77%E -4.04%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-04 11:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.10%EV -8.35%E -3.83%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.45%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-04 11:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-04 11:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -11.72%E -5.58%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-04 11:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -3.51%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 11:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-04 03:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -2.02%E -0.613%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 11:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 41.92%EV -7.09%E -3.21%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.13%EV -5.59%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 11:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 41.54%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.42%EV -12.42%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.04%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-04 03:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 41.54%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.42%EV -12.42%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.04%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-04 03:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.60%EV -13.82%E -6.74%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.11%EV -13.90%E -4.79%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.29%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-07-04 11:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.59%EV -4.15%E -1.82%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.31%EV -0.539%E -0.161%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.10%EV -10.95%E -3.48%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 11:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.59%EV -4.15%E -1.82%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.31%EV -0.539%E -0.161%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.10%EV -10.95%E -3.48%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 11:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -10.95%E -3.48%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-04 11:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -4.99%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-04 11:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -5.41%E -2.41%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-04 11:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -5.41%E -2.41%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-04 11:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -5.41%E -2.41%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-04 11:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -5.41%E -2.41%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-04 11:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-07-04 11:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-07-04 11:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -11.72%E -5.58%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-07-04 11:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.64%EV -11.72%E -5.58%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.15%EV -13.90%E -4.79%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-07-04 11:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.64% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10% | 1.1% | 2026-07-04 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.47% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.56% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.98% | 1.5% | 2026-07-04 11:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.47% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.56% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.98% | 1.5% | 2026-07-04 11:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.47% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.56% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.98% | 1.5% | 2026-07-04 11:45 |