The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC v Shanghai SIPG FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 07:30 UTC

Final: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC 1–3 Shanghai SIPG FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local)

Prediction 30.72%3.26fair odd
EV +2.30%
Edge +0.691%
Kelly +0.987%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.13%30.77%30.70%33.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.623.003.003.3338.17%33.35%33.33%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shanghai SIPG FC (Visit)

Prediction 43.16%2.32fair odd
EV -0.739%
Edge -0.321%
Kelly -0.569%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.14%43.01%43.27%45.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.152.152.3051.81%46.50%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.12%3.83fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.473%
Kelly -0.645%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.29%26.23%26.03%28.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.453.453.7632.26%28.98%28.99%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local): 30.72%; Shanghai SIPG FC (Visit): 43.16%; Draw: 26.12%. For Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 28.13%EV +2.30%E +0.691%K +0.987%G +0.023%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.48%EV -11.10%E -5.39%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 07:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -1.69%E -0.529%K -0.770%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.34%EV -7.64%E -3.57%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.00%EV -4.65%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 07:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.55%EV -1.69%E -0.529%K -0.770%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.19%EV -7.64%E -3.57%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 07:25
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -1.69%E -0.529%K -0.770%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 07:25
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -1.69%E -0.529%K -0.770%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -8.51%E -4.01%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -1.69%E -0.529%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.90%EV -14.98%E -7.60%K -15.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 07:25
BetUS🎯3.19I 31.35%NM 29.82%EV -2.00%E -0.627%K -0.913%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.88%EV -8.51%E -4.01%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.30%EV -1.78%E -0.473%K -0.645%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 07:20
Pinnacle🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.13%EV -2.92%E -0.925%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.28%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.59%EV -2.83%E -0.759%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 07:15
GTbets🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.57%EV -4.15%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.16%EV -4.62%E -2.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.27%EV -5.18%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 07:25
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -4.77%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -2.04%E -0.544%K -0.742%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 07:24
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.77%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.65%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 07:19
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -4.77%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -11.53%E -5.62%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 07:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -4.77%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -11.53%E -5.62%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 07:25
picklebet_au🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -2.90%E -1.29%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 07:14
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -1.60%E -0.703%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -1.60%E -0.703%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:25
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -1.60%E -0.703%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:25
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -1.60%E -0.703%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:25
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -1.60%E -0.703%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:25
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -1.60%E -0.703%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:24
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 07:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 07:25
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 07:14
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 07:25
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 07:25
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 07:25
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 07:23
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 07:25
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 07:24
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 07:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 07:25
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.38%EV -10.23%E -4.92%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 07:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.11%EV -9.07%E -3.06%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.43%EV -6.35%E -2.93%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.46%EV -9.09%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 07:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -9.37%E -3.18%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -5.92%E -2.71%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 07:20
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -9.37%E -3.18%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -5.92%E -2.71%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 07:20
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -9.37%E -3.18%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -5.92%E -2.71%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 07:14
LeoVegas🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -10.91%E -3.76%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.95%EV -5.92%E -2.71%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 07:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.52%E -4.00%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 07:15
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.52%E -4.00%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 07:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.97%EV -12.45%E -4.37%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.37%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 07:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.13%EV -12.45%E -4.37%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.70%EV -5.92%E -2.71%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -17.71%E -5.62%K -8.24%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 07:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.80%EV -13.98%E -4.99%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.40%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 07:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.20%EV -13.98%E -4.99%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.63%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.18%EV -19.02%E -6.14%K -9.06%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-24 07:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.20%EV -13.98%E -4.99%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.63%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.18%EV -19.02%E -6.14%K -9.06%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-24 07:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.31%EV -13.98%E -4.99%K -7.77%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 43.97%EV -16.71%E -8.66%K -17.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.72%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-24 07:15
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -15.52%E -5.64%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -0.739%E -0.321%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -16.41%E -5.13%K -7.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 07:14
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.45%EV -19.51%E -7.45%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.77%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.78%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-24 07:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-10-24 07:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-10-24 07:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-10-24 07:25
Matchbook◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-10-24 07:25
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-10-24 07:25