The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC v Liaoning Tieren FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local)

Prediction 39.68%2.52fair odd
EV -5.17%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -3.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.40%39.68%39.68%39.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.322.332.3943.86%43.04%42.92%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Liaoning Tieren FC (Visit)

Prediction 31.88%3.14fair odd
EV -7.23%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -3.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.72%31.88%31.88%32.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.882.902.9135.71%34.71%34.48%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.45%3.52fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.15%28.45%28.45%28.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.243.253.3531.75%30.90%30.77%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local): 39.68%; Liaoning Tieren FC (Visit): 31.88%; Draw: 28.45%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.35, with an expected value of -4.71%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.45%EV -5.17%E -2.16%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.40%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -4.71%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-06 00:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -7.55%E -3.24%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-07 10:25
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -7.55%E -3.24%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-07 10:25
BetRivers🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -7.55%E -3.24%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-07 10:25
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -7.55%E -3.24%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-07 10:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -7.55%E -3.24%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-07 10:25
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -7.55%E -3.24%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-07 10:24
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -7.55%E -3.24%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-07 10:23
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -8.19%E -2.84%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.98%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-07 10:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.40%EV -9.54%E -4.18%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.08%EV -10.74%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-07 10:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.40%EV -9.54%E -4.18%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.08%EV -10.74%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-07 10:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 40.13%3.33I 30.03%NM 23.62%2.17I 46.08%NM 36.25%27.1%2026-07-12 10:54

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