The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Shenzhen Peng City FC v Shanghai Shenhua FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 07:30 UTC

Final: Shenzhen Peng City FC 2–1 Shanghai Shenhua FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shenzhen Peng City FC (Local)

Prediction 28.03%3.57fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.295%
Kelly -0.412%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.64%27.98%28.09%29.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.313.303.5332.26%30.22%30.30%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shanghai Shenhua FC (Visit)

Prediction 48.71%2.05fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.73%48.87%48.63%51.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.871.871.9858.82%53.43%53.48%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.25%4.30fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -0.555%
Kelly -0.728%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.53%23.15%23.28%24.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.944.004.2027.03%25.39%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shenzhen Peng City FC (Local): 28.03%; Shanghai Shenhua FC (Visit): 48.71%; Draw: 23.25%. For Shenzhen Peng City FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.53, with an expected value of -1.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 26.85%EV -1.04%E -0.295%K -0.412%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.63%EV -6.96%E -3.64%K -7.65%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.52%EV -6.28%E -1.56%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 06:54
Unibet (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -1.88%E -0.538%K -0.753%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -8.91%E -4.76%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:20
TABtouch🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -1.88%E -0.538%K -0.753%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -8.91%E -4.76%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:20
Grosvenor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -1.88%E -0.538%K -0.753%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -8.91%E -4.76%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -1.88%E -0.538%K -0.753%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -8.91%E -4.76%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:20
Unibet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -1.88%E -0.538%K -0.753%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -8.91%E -4.76%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:20
betPARX🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -1.88%E -0.538%K -0.753%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -8.91%E -4.76%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:20
1xBet🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.90%EV -2.44%E -0.702%K -0.985%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.53%EV -7.94%E -4.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.58%EV -7.68%E -1.93%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 07:25
BetUS🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.66%EV -3.56%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.55%EV -4.53%E -2.31%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 07:20
Pinnacle🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.61%EV -3.56%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.22%EV -4.04%E -2.05%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.17%EV -8.61%E -2.19%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 07:15
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.66%EV -10.86%E -5.93%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -2.33%E -0.555%K -0.728%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 07:20
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -9.88%E -5.34%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -12.79%E -3.41%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 07:10
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -9.88%E -5.34%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -12.79%E -3.41%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 07:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -9.88%E -5.34%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -12.79%E -3.41%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 07:10
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -9.88%E -5.34%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -12.79%E -3.41%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 07:10
Marathon Bet🎯3.36I 29.76%NM 27.39%EV -5.81%E -1.73%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.70%EV -7.94%E -4.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -10.47%E -2.72%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 07:14
SportsBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.25%EV -7.45%E -3.92%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -4.65%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 07:20
BetRivers🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.88%EV -12.32%E -6.84%K -15.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -10.47%E -2.72%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 07:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.64%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.87%EV -12.81%E -7.15%K -16.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -11.63%E -3.06%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 07:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.73%EV -3.55%E -1.79%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 07:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.73%EV -3.55%E -1.79%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 07:20
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.91%EV -5.99%E -3.10%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -2.33%E -0.555%K -0.728%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 07:20
picklebet_au🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.01%E -2.57%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 07:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.37%EV -5.99%E -3.10%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 07:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -7.45%E -3.92%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 07:20
betano_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -8.91%E -4.76%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 07:23
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.08%EV -13.78%E -7.79%K -17.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.53%EV -2.33%E -0.555%K -0.728%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 07:10
Bovada🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -5.01%E -2.57%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 07:15
Codere (IT)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.14%EV -6.96%E -3.64%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -9.31%E -2.39%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 07:10
Bet Victor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -9.88%E -5.34%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -4.65%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 07:25
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.13%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.12%EV -7.45%E -3.92%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -10.47%E -2.72%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 07:10
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.13%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.12%EV -7.45%E -3.92%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -10.47%E -2.72%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 07:09
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -9.88%E -5.34%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 07:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -9.88%E -5.34%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 07:20
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -8.91%E -4.76%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -10.47%E -2.72%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 07:10
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.73%EV -14.27%E -8.11%K -18.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.34%EV -12.79%E -3.41%K -4.65%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-24 07:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.73%EV -14.27%E -8.11%K -18.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.34%EV -12.79%E -3.41%K -4.65%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-24 07:20
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -10.29%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -7.45%E -3.92%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 07:10
Bet Right🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -10.29%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -7.45%E -3.92%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 07:20
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -10.29%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.07%EV -6.96%E -3.64%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -8.14%E -2.06%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 07:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -11.69%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -8.42%E -4.48%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 07:10
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -13.10%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.96%E -3.64%K -7.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -6.98%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 07:14
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -13.10%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.15%EV -9.40%E -5.05%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.96%EV -9.31%E -2.39%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 07:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -13.10%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -9.88%E -5.34%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -11.63%E -3.06%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 07:25
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -13.10%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -9.88%E -5.34%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -11.63%E -3.06%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 07:25
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -13.10%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 49.67%EV -15.73%E -9.09%K -21.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.61%EV -11.63%E -3.06%K -4.15%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-23 20:09
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.31%EV -13.10%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 49.80%EV -17.19%E -10.11%K -24.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.88%EV -13.96%E -3.77%K -5.17%G +0.000%18.1%2026-10-24 07:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.92%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.91%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.17%0.2%2026-10-24 07:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.07%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.2%2026-10-24 07:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.07%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.2%2026-10-24 07:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.07%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.2%2026-10-24 07:10
Kalshi◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54%2.0%2026-10-24 07:10