The School of Odds

Shanghai SIPG FC v Dalian Yingbo

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 11:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Shanghai SIPG FC (Local)

Prediction 49.08%2.04fair odd
EV -6.27%
Edge -3.28%
Kelly -6.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.77%49.08%49.08%49.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.841.891.901.9154%53%52%52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Dalian Yingbo (Visit)

Prediction 25.99%3.85fair odd
EV -7.74%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -3.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.99%25.99%25.99%27.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.443.513.553.5529%28%28%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.94%4.01fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.575%
Kelly -0.771%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.73%24.94%24.94%25.93%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.503.683.703.9229%27%27%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor1.91I 52.36%NM 48.68%EV -6.27%E -3.28%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -7.74%E -2.09%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 22:44
TABtouch1.91I 52.36%NM 48.68%EV -6.27%E -3.28%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -7.74%E -2.09%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 22:44
Unibet (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.68%EV -6.27%E -3.28%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -7.74%E -2.09%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 22:45
Unibet (NL)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.68%EV -6.27%E -3.28%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -7.74%E -2.09%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 22:44
Unibet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.68%EV -6.27%E -3.28%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -7.74%E -2.09%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 22:45
betPARX1.91I 52.36%NM 48.68%EV -6.27%E -3.28%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -7.74%E -2.09%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 22:44
Everygame1.90I 52.63%NM 47.77%EV -6.76%E -3.56%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -12.73%E -3.64%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-12 10:49
GTbets1.89I 52.91%NM 49.22%EV -7.25%E -3.83%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.04%EV -10.60%E -3.08%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.73%EV -2.25%E -0.575%K -0.771%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-09 01:00
BetRivers1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -7.74%E -4.12%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.74%E -2.09%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-09 22:44
LeoVegas (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.86%EV -8.23%E -4.40%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.11%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -8.99%E -2.46%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-09 22:45
LiveScore Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 48.91%EV -9.70%E -5.27%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.23%E -2.84%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-09 22:45
Virgin Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 48.91%EV -9.70%E -5.27%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.23%E -2.84%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-09 22:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 48.11%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%6.1%2026-07-12 11:20