Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC

2026-08-09 12:00 UTC — Super League - China

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC (Local)

Prediction 54.28%1.84fair odd
EV -5.00%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -6.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.80%54.23%54.48%55.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.701.7561.73%58.93%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Visit)

Prediction 21.92%4.56fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -0.916%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.76%22.03%21.84%23.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.124.154.3827.03%24.30%24.10%22.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.80%4.20fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.590%
Kelly -0.780%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.83%23.74%23.68%24.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.873.854.1027.78%25.83%25.97%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Shandong Luneng Taishan FC (Local): 54.28%; Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Visit): 21.92%; Draw: 23.80%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.20. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.10, with an expected value of -2.42%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.56%EV -5.00%E -2.86%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.80%EV -4.01%E -0.916%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.64%EV -3.85%E -0.952%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 12:40
Pinnacle1.73I 57.80%NM 54.52%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -5.11%E -1.18%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.70%EV -5.27%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 13:15
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -12.34%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -10.75%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-02 14:24
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -12.34%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -10.75%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-02 14:24
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -12.34%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -10.75%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-02 14:25
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -12.34%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -10.75%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-02 14:25
Coolbet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -6.63%E -3.86%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -5.76%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -4.80%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 12:40
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 53.73%EV -6.63%E -3.86%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -9.05%E -2.18%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -8.37%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-02 12:25
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 53.73%EV -6.63%E -3.86%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -9.05%E -2.18%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -8.37%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-02 12:25
Marathon Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.54%EV -7.72%E -4.54%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -6.86%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.65%EV -6.70%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 12:25
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -7.72%E -4.54%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -7.96%E -1.89%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -9.56%E -2.52%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 12:29
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 53.73%EV -7.72%E -4.54%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.55%EV -11.24%E -2.78%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -8.37%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-02 12:29
SportsBet1.69I 59.17%NM 55.39%EV -8.26%E -4.89%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -5.76%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -2.42%E -0.590%K -0.780%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 12:40
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 55.39%EV -8.26%E -4.89%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -5.76%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -2.42%E -0.590%K -0.780%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 12:39
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 54.49%EV -8.80%E -5.24%K -12.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -10.15%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -5.99%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-02 12:40
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -9.35%E -5.60%K -13.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -7.96%E -1.89%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -4.80%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 12:40
Paddy Power1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -10.43%E -6.32%K -16.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -7.96%E -1.89%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -4.80%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 12:50
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 53.51%EV -10.97%E -6.69%K -17.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -16.72%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.40%EV -10.75%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-02 12:34
Unibet (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 53.30%EV -10.97%E -6.69%K -17.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.41%EV -14.53%E -3.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.28%EV -14.32%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-02 12:25
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 53.14%EV -12.06%E -7.44%K -19.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.27%EV -18.91%E -5.11%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.59%EV -13.13%E -3.60%K -4.95%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-02 12:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:50