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Qingdao Hainiu FC v Beijing FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Qingdao Hainiu FC (Local)
Prediction 16.26%6.15fair odd
EV +1.62%
Edge +0.259%
Kelly +0.309%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.09%16.70%16.33%20.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.305.295.506.2523.26%18.92%18.18%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Beijing FC (Visit)
Prediction 64.42%1.55fair odd
EV +3.72%
Edge +2.31%
Kelly +6.09%
Growth +0.226%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.37%63.73%64.35%66.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.491.441.6171.43%67.15%69.44%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.32%5.18fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -0.679%
Kelly -0.849%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.50%19.57%19.32%22.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.544.605.0025.32%22.01%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Qingdao Hainiu FC (Local): 16.26%; Beijing FC (Visit): 64.42%; Draw: 19.32%. For Beijing FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.55. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.72%.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.24%EV -25.21%E -5.48%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.84%EV +3.72%E +2.31%K +6.09%G +0.226% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -17.89%E -4.21%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 13:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.24%EV -25.21%E -5.48%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.84%EV +3.72%E +2.31%K +6.09%G +0.226% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -17.89%E -4.21%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 13:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.24%EV -25.21%E -5.48%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.84%EV +3.72%E +2.31%K +6.09%G +0.226% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -17.89%E -4.21%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.24%EV -25.21%E -5.48%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.84%EV +3.72%E +2.31%K +6.09%G +0.226% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -17.89%E -4.21%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.24%EV -25.21%E -5.48%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.84%EV +3.72%E +2.31%K +6.09%G +0.226% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -17.89%E -4.21%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.24%EV -25.21%E -5.48%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.84%EV +3.72%E +2.31%K +6.09%G +0.226% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -17.89%E -4.21%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 13:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -28.46%E -6.47%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.64%EV +0.494%E +0.317%K +0.882%G +0.004% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -20.78%E -5.07%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-05 13:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.25%EV -28.46%E -6.47%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.48%EV -0.150%E -0.097%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -22.72%E -5.68%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.41%EV -30.08%E -7.00%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.37%EV -1.44%E -0.940%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.22%EV -23.68%E -6.00%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.41%EV -30.08%E -7.00%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.37%EV -1.44%E -0.940%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.22%EV -23.68%E -6.00%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.37I 18.62%NM 17.53%EV -12.69%E -2.36%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.18%EV -4.02%E -2.69%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 4.88I 20.49%NM 19.29%EV -5.71%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 13:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV +1.62%E +0.259%K +0.309%G +0.005% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.05%EV -6.59%E -4.55%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -8.22%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -5.69%E -0.982%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.05%EV -7.24%E -5.03%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -11.12%E -2.42%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 12:12 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -6.51%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.96%EV -7.24%E -5.03%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -11.12%E -2.42%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 12:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -6.51%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.96%EV -7.24%E -5.03%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -11.12%E -2.42%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 12:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -6.51%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.96%EV -7.24%E -5.03%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -11.12%E -2.42%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 12:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -2.44%E -0.407%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.60%EV -7.88%E -5.51%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -3.39%E -0.679%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -10.57%E -1.92%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.68%EV -7.88%E -5.51%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -3.39%E -0.679%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-05 15:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -10.57%E -1.92%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.68%EV -7.88%E -5.51%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -3.39%E -0.679%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -10.57%E -1.92%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.44%EV -7.88%E -5.51%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.81%EV -5.33%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-05 12:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -6.51%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -7.88%E -5.51%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -11.12%E -2.42%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -2.44%E -0.407%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -8.52%E -6.00%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -3.39%E -0.679%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -2.44%E -0.407%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.12%EV -8.52%E -6.00%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -8.22%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -2.44%E -0.407%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -3.39%E -0.679%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-05 13:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -2.44%E -0.407%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.53%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.12%E -2.42%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-05 13:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -10.57%E -1.92%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.55%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.53%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.02%EV -8.22%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.