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Qingdao Hainiu FC v Beijing FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Qingdao Hainiu FC (Local)
Prediction 16.48%6.07fair odd
EV +2.50%
Edge +0.401%
Kelly +0.478%
Growth +0.012%
assuming max odds 6.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.69%16.48%16.61%17.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.465.356.2220.41%18.30%18.69%16.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Beijing FC (Visit)
Prediction 64.03%1.56fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -5.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.13%64.02%63.94%65.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.441.441.5275.19%69.40%69.69%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.49%5.13fair odd
EV -0.034%
Edge -0.007%
Kelly -0.008%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.30%19.50%19.45%20.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.614.605.1323.81%21.68%21.74%19.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Qingdao Hainiu FC (Local): 16.48%; Beijing FC (Visit): 64.03%; Draw: 19.49%. For Qingdao Hainiu FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.07. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.50%.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.22I 16.08%NM 15.33%EV +2.50%E +0.401%K +0.478%G +0.012% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.30%EV -6.51%E -4.46%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 4.92I 20.33%NM 19.38%EV -4.13%E -0.839%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-05 10:33 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.69%EV +2.17%E +0.350%K +0.417%G +0.009% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.07%EV -10.35%E -7.39%K -25.88%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -12.31%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-05 11:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -1.13%E -0.188%K -0.226%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.28%EV -9.71%E -6.89%K -23.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.38%EV -7.44%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -1.13%E -0.188%K -0.226%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -10.35%E -7.39%K -25.88%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -10.36%E -2.25%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-05 14:34 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -1.13%E -0.188%K -0.226%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -10.35%E -7.39%K -25.88%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -10.36%E -2.25%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-05 15:08 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.27%EV -3.11%E -0.528%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.21%EV -4.59%E -3.08%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.52%EV -4.52%E -0.922%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-05 10:34 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.05%EV -3.60%E -0.615%K -0.742%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.65%EV -8.43%E -5.90%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 5.13I 19.49%NM 18.30%EV -0.034%E -0.007%K -0.008%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-05 12:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -4.42%E -0.763%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.05%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -10.36%E -2.25%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 11:56 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -5.25%E -0.913%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.96%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -10.36%E -2.25%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 11:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -5.25%E -0.913%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.96%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -10.36%E -2.25%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 11:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -5.25%E -0.913%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.96%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -10.36%E -2.25%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 11:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV -7.72%E -1.38%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.72%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -2.57%E -0.513%K -0.642%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -9.37%E -1.70%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.74%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.89%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -7.44%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 08:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -9.37%E -1.70%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.93%EV -8.43%E -5.90%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.45%EV -8.41%E -1.79%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 08:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -9.37%E -1.70%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.93%EV -8.43%E -5.90%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.45%EV -8.41%E -1.79%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 08:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.80%EV -11.02%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.89%EV -9.07%E -6.39%K -21.60%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.30%EV -8.41%E -1.79%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-05 12:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -12.66%E -2.39%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.55%EV -2.67%E -1.75%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -12.31%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 09:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.58%EV -12.66%E -2.39%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.71%EV -3.31%E -2.19%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -12.31%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 09:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.58%EV -12.66%E -2.39%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.71%EV -3.31%E -2.19%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -12.31%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 09:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.58%EV -12.66%E -2.39%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.71%EV -3.31%E -2.19%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -12.31%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 09:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.58%EV -12.66%E -2.39%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.71%EV -3.31%E -2.19%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -12.31%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 09:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.58%EV -12.66%E -2.39%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.71%EV -3.31%E -2.19%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -12.31%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 09:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.48%EV -13.49%E -2.57%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.17%EV -8.43%E -5.90%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -2.57%E -0.513%K -0.642%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 12:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.26%EV -14.31%E -2.75%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.22%EV -9.07%E -6.39%K -21.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.52%EV -10.36%E -2.25%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-05 08:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -15.96%E -3.13%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.69%EV -9.71%E -6.89%K -23.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.71%EV -6.46%E -1.35%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-05 08:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 16.76%EV -15.96%E -3.13%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 64.25%EV -14.83%E -11.15%K -44.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 18.99%EV -12.31%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-10-05 08:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.97%EV -17.61%E -3.52%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.13%EV -5.87%E -3.99%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.90%EV -16.21%E -3.77%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-05 09:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -17.61%E -3.52%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.31%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.92%EV -17.18%E -4.04%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-05 09:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.28%EV -17.61%E -3.52%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 63.52%EV -12.91%E -9.49%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.20%EV -12.31%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-10-05 12:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.89%EV -19.25%E -3.93%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 63.06%EV -10.99%E -7.91%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.05%EV -10.36%E -2.25%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-10-05 08:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.88%EV -19.25%E -3.93%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.26%EV -8.43%E -5.90%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.86%EV -18.16%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-10-05 09:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.88%EV -19.25%E -3.93%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.26%EV -8.43%E -5.90%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.86%EV -18.16%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-10-05 09:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.04% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 19.81% | 6.0% | 2026-10-05 13:25 |