Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Liaoning Tieren FC v Wuhan Three Towns

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 11:35 UTC

Final: Liaoning Tieren FC 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Liaoning Tieren FC (Local)

Prediction 48.42%2.07fair odd
EV +0.715%
Edge +0.344%
Kelly +0.662%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.37%48.18%48.42%49.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.931.932.0858.82%51.70%51.81%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wuhan Three Towns (Visit)

Prediction 27.33%3.66fair odd
EV +0.310%
Edge +0.085%
Kelly +0.116%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.49%27.45%27.42%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.293.303.6734.72%30.42%30.30%27.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.25%4.12fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -0.753%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.39%24.38%24.16%26.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.753.804.0028.57%26.68%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Liaoning Tieren FC (Local): 48.42%; Wuhan Three Towns (Visit): 27.33%; Draw: 24.25%. For Liaoning Tieren FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.07. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.715%.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.56%EV +0.715%E +0.344%K +0.662%G +0.005%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -16.64%E -5.45%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -10.29%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 11:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.56%EV +0.715%E +0.344%K +0.662%G +0.005%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -16.64%E -5.45%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -10.29%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 11:09
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.56%EV +0.715%E +0.344%K +0.662%G +0.005%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -16.64%E -5.45%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -10.29%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 11:09
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.56%EV +0.715%E +0.344%K +0.662%G +0.005%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -16.64%E -5.45%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -10.29%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 11:09
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.56%EV +0.715%E +0.344%K +0.662%G +0.005%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -16.64%E -5.45%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -10.29%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 11:09
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.56%EV +0.715%E +0.344%K +0.662%G +0.005%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -16.64%E -5.45%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -10.29%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 11:14
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.37%EV -2.19%E -1.08%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -19.37%E -6.57%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.25%EV -13.92%E -3.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-11 11:09
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.73%EV -4.13%E -2.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -9.80%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -3.01%E -0.753%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 11:15
1xBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.42%EV -4.61%E -2.34%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.33%EV -4.95%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-11 11:28
GTbets🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.32%EV -4.61%E -2.34%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.77%EV -11.44%E -3.53%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -5.44%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 11:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.76%EV -4.61%E -2.34%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.40%EV -20.74%E -7.15%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.84%EV -13.92%E -3.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-11 11:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.63%EV -5.10%E -2.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.37%EV -21.28%E -7.39%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.99%EV -15.14%E -4.32%K -6.05%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-11 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.63%EV -5.10%E -2.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.37%EV -21.28%E -7.39%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.99%EV -15.14%E -4.32%K -6.05%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-11 11:09
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.20%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.51%EV -1.06%E -0.292%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.29%EV -4.23%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-11 11:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.64%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -2.97%E -0.837%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -6.65%E -1.73%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 11:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.64%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -2.97%E -0.837%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -6.65%E -1.73%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 11:29
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.57%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.45%EV -5.70%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.98%EV -4.23%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 11:29
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.08%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.35%EV -6.65%E -1.73%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-11 11:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.62%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -11.17%E -3.44%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -5.44%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 11:14
Bet Right🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -12.54%E -3.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.86%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 11:14
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -12.54%E -3.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.08%E -2.42%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 11:15
BetUS🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.70%EV -6.55%E -3.39%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.14%EV +0.310%E +0.085%K +0.116%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.16%EV -3.74%E -0.942%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-11 11:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -6.55%E -3.39%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.44%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 11:30
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.52%E -3.94%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.86%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-11 11:29
LeoVegas🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -7.52%E -3.94%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -9.80%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -6.65%E -1.73%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-11 11:29
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.52%E -3.94%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-11 11:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.52%E -3.94%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-11 11:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.52%E -3.94%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-11 11:30
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.52%E -3.94%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-11 11:29
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -7.52%E -3.94%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -12.54%E -3.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -15.14%E -4.32%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-11 11:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -7.52%E -3.94%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -12.54%E -3.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -15.14%E -4.32%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-11 11:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -8.00%E -4.21%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -1.60%E -0.445%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -15.14%E -4.32%K -6.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-11 11:30
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.22%EV -8.00%E -4.21%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -8.44%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -9.08%E -2.42%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 11:30
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.22%EV -8.00%E -4.21%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -8.44%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -9.08%E -2.42%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 11:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.18%EV -8.00%E -4.21%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.80%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -7.86%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-11 11:29
SportsBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -8.97%E -4.77%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -5.44%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 11:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.53%EV -8.97%E -4.77%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.07%EV -11.17%E -3.44%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.39%EV -5.44%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 11:29
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -9.45%E -5.06%K -10.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -5.44%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 11:30
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.97%EV -9.45%E -5.06%K -10.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%EV -7.86%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 11:29
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.97%EV -9.45%E -5.06%K -10.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%EV -7.86%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 11:28
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.08%EV -9.94%E -5.34%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.39%EV -13.90%E -4.41%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -7.86%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 11:29
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -11.39%E -6.22%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -7.86%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-11 11:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -11.39%E -6.22%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -7.86%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-11 11:30
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.06%EV -12.84%E -7.13%K -16.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -15.27%E -4.93%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.03%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-11 11:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 49.91%EV -17.68%E -10.40%K -25.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.52%EV -12.54%E -3.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.57%EV -12.71%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%17.9%2026-10-11 11:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 49.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.02%1.6%2026-10-11 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 49.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.02%1.6%2026-10-11 11:30
Matchbook◎1.98I 50.51%NM 49.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.02%1.6%2026-10-11 11:29
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50%2.0%2026-10-11 11:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.98%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.12%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.89%2.1%2026-10-11 11:30