Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Liaoning Tieren FC v Dalian Yingbo

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 11:35 UTC

Final: Liaoning Tieren FC 0–1 Dalian Yingbo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Liaoning Tieren FC (Local)

Prediction 37.43%2.67fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.37%37.59%37.36%40.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.412.452.6044.44%41.48%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dalian Yingbo (Visit)

Prediction 35.92%2.78fair odd
EV +0.583%
Edge +0.208%
Kelly +0.324%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.86%35.77%35.92%36.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.622.602.8041.67%38.16%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.64%3.75fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.65%26.64%26.72%27.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.443.453.6032.26%29.04%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Liaoning Tieren FC (Local): 37.43%; Dalian Yingbo (Visit): 35.92%; Draw: 26.64%. For Dalian Yingbo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.78. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.583%.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.40%EV -14.65%E -6.43%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV +0.583%E +0.208%K +0.324%G +0.002%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 10:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.40%EV -14.65%E -6.43%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV +0.583%E +0.208%K +0.324%G +0.002%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 10:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.40%EV -14.65%E -6.43%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV +0.583%E +0.208%K +0.324%G +0.002%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 10:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.40%EV -14.65%E -6.43%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV +0.583%E +0.208%K +0.324%G +0.002%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 10:54
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.40%EV -14.65%E -6.43%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV +0.583%E +0.208%K +0.324%G +0.002%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 10:54
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.40%EV -14.65%E -6.43%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV +0.583%E +0.208%K +0.324%G +0.002%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 10:54
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.40%EV -14.65%E -6.43%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV +0.583%E +0.208%K +0.324%G +0.002%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 10:54
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.40%EV -14.65%E -6.43%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV +0.583%E +0.208%K +0.324%G +0.002%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 10:54
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.40%EV -14.65%E -6.43%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV +0.583%E +0.208%K +0.324%G +0.002%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 10:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -15.77%E -7.01%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -1.21%E -0.441%K -0.693%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -10.75%E -3.21%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-22 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -15.77%E -7.01%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -1.21%E -0.441%K -0.693%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -10.75%E -3.21%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-22 10:55
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 37.20%EV -3.04%E -1.18%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.42%EV -2.29%E -0.842%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.22%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-22 11:30
Bovada🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.01%EV -4.92%E -1.94%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.34%EV -4.45%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 11:28
BetUS🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.01%EV -4.92%E -1.94%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.34%EV -4.45%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 11:25
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.77%EV -6.41%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.63%EV -4.81%E -1.81%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.42%E -1.53%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-22 11:29
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -8.29%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.81%E -1.81%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.08%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 11:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.37%EV -2.67%E -1.03%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.82%EV -5.16%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-22 11:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.74%EV -3.42%E -1.33%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.18%EV -5.88%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.75%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 11:25
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -10.16%E -4.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.88%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.08%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 11:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.22%EV -6.79%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.51%EV -6.24%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 11:28
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.41%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.60%E -2.54%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.75%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 11:04
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.07%EV -5.67%E -2.25%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.60%E -2.54%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.00%EV -7.81%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 11:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -10.16%E -4.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.60%E -2.54%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -4.08%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 11:15
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -10.16%E -4.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -6.60%E -2.54%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.75%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-22 11:09
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.31%EV -7.16%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.87%EV -7.32%E -2.84%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-22 11:04
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.31%EV -7.16%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.87%EV -7.32%E -2.84%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-22 11:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.29%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -8.40%E -3.29%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.75%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 11:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.25%EV -7.54%E -3.05%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.08%EV -8.40%E -3.29%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.67%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-22 11:09
Everygame🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -8.29%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -8.40%E -3.29%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -12.08%E -3.66%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-22 11:24
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.29%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -10.19%E -4.08%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.75%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-22 11:30
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.41%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.19%E -4.08%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-22 11:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.94%EV -10.16%E -4.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%EV -10.19%E -4.08%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -5.42%E -1.53%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-22 11:04
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.29%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.19%E -4.08%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-22 10:54
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.29%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.19%E -4.08%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-22 10:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.29%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.19%E -4.08%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-22 10:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.29%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.19%E -4.08%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-22 10:54
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -10.91%E -4.58%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -10.19%E -4.08%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -6.75%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-22 11:04
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.16%E -4.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.99%E -4.89%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-22 11:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.16%E -4.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.99%E -4.89%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-22 11:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.45%EV -12.03%E -5.12%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -13.79%E -5.74%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.88%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-22 11:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.03%EV -13.90%E -6.04%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.49%EV -13.79%E -5.74%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.48%EV -17.41%E -5.61%K -8.29%G +0.000%17.4%2026-04-22 11:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.58I 38.76%NM 38.55%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.18%0.5%2026-04-22 11:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.46%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-04-22 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.46%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-04-22 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.46%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-04-22 11:25
Kalshi2.63I 38.02%NM 37.25%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-04-22 11:25