La escuela de los momios

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC v Zhejiang

Inicio: 2026-07-18 11:00 UTC

Final: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1–1 Zhejiang

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (Local)

Predicción 36.50%2.74momio equitativo
EV -1.44%
Ventaja -0.534%
Kelly -0.848%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.15%36.53%36.55%38.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.532.522.7043.48%39.47%39.68%37.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Zhejiang (Visitante)

Predicción 36.10%2.77momio equitativo
EV +0.360%
Ventaja +0.130%
Kelly +0.202%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.04%36.00%36.38%38.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.382.552.542.7842.02%39.27%39.45%35.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.40%3.65momio equitativo
EV -2.47%
Ventaja -0.694%
Kelly -0.965%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.05%27.47%27.07%29.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.373.403.5632.26%29.71%29.41%28.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.09%E -1.96%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.04%EV +0.360%E +0.130%K +0.202%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -12.33%E -3.85%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-18 10:55
LowVig.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.09%E -1.96%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.04%EV +0.360%E +0.130%K +0.202%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -12.33%E -3.85%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-18 10:55
BetUS2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.09%E -1.96%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.04%EV +0.360%E +0.130%K +0.202%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -12.33%E -3.85%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-18 10:55
Pinnacle2.70I 37.04%NM 35.67%EV -1.44%E -0.534%K -0.848%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.41%EV -1.81%E -0.664%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.92%EV -8.77%E -2.63%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-18 10:50
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.74%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -2.53%E -0.936%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.59%E -2.91%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 10:55
1xBet2.42I 41.32%NM 38.67%EV -11.66%E -4.82%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.05%EV -3.61%E -1.35%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.29%EV -2.47%E -0.694%K -0.965%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-18 10:55
Marathon Bet2.52I 39.68%NM 36.76%EV -8.01%E -3.18%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.82%EV -3.97%E -1.49%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.42%EV -10.69%E -3.28%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-18 10:55
DraftKings2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.09%E -1.96%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.58%EV -4.33%E -1.64%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -8.22%E -2.45%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-18 10:40
Bovada2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -4.33%E -1.64%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -6.85%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-18 10:55
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -8.74%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -4.33%E -1.64%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -15.07%E -4.86%K -7.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-18 10:55
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.74%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -5.42%E -2.07%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -12.33%E -3.85%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-18 10:55
888sport2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -5.42%E -2.07%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -10.96%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-18 10:55
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -5.42%E -2.07%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -10.96%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-18 10:55
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -5.42%E -2.07%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -10.96%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-18 10:55
FanDuel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -3.27%E -1.23%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -6.14%E -2.36%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.85%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-18 10:39
Tipico (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -6.14%E -2.36%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -12.33%E -3.85%K -5.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-18 10:40
NordicBet2.52I 39.68%NM 36.64%EV -8.01%E -3.18%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.79%EV -6.86%E -2.66%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -8.22%E -2.45%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-18 10:55
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.09%E -1.96%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -7.94%E -3.11%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 10:40
Unibet (UK)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.94%E -3.11%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 10:05
SportsBet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -5.09%E -1.96%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -7.94%E -3.11%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -8.22%E -2.45%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-18 10:40
Bet Victor2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -8.74%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -7.94%E -3.11%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -6.85%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-18 10:39
betano_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -8.74%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -7.94%E -3.11%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -6.85%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-18 10:39
PlayUp2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -7.94%E -3.11%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -9.59%E -2.91%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-18 10:55
Betsson2.52I 39.68%NM 36.62%EV -8.01%E -3.18%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.62%EV -9.03%E -3.58%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -5.48%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-18 10:05
PointsBet (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-18 10:25
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -8.74%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -5.48%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-18 10:40
LeoVegas2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.74%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -6.85%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-18 10:55
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.74%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -6.85%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-18 10:40
Codere (IT)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.74%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -6.85%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-18 10:05
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -8.74%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -10.96%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-18 10:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -8.74%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -10.96%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-18 10:45
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -10.96%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-18 10:40
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -9.75%E -3.90%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -10.96%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-18 10:40
TABtouch2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -4.00%E -1.52%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -11.55%E -4.72%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-15 21:50
Unibet (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -4.00%E -1.52%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -11.55%E -4.72%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-15 21:55
Unibet (NL)2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -4.00%E -1.52%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -11.55%E -4.72%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-15 21:50
Unibet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -4.00%E -1.52%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -11.55%E -4.72%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-15 21:54
Grosvenor2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -4.00%E -1.52%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -11.55%E -4.72%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-15 21:50
betPARX2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -4.00%E -1.52%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -11.55%E -4.72%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-15 21:55
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -11.55%E -4.72%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-18 10:05
BetRivers2.63I 38.02%NM 35.15%EV -4.00%E -1.52%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.05%EV -12.28%E -5.05%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.80%EV -5.48%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-15 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.25%EV -5.09%E -1.96%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.19%EV -13.36%E -5.57%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -5.48%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-15 21:50
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.16%EV -14.22%E -6.05%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.38%EV -13.36%E -5.57%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.46%EV -9.59%E -2.91%K -4.17%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-18 10:55
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -14.08%E -5.92%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.85%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-15 21:50
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -14.08%E -5.92%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.85%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-15 21:50
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 38.12%EV -16.04%E -6.98%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.84%EV -14.08%E -5.92%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.05%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-18 10:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 37.40%2.86I 34.97%NM 35.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.29%-1.0%2026-07-18 10:55
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.30%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.27%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42%0.5%2026-07-18 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.38%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27%1.1%2026-07-18 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.55%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.25%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-07-18 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.55%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.25%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-07-18 10:55