The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Universidad de Concepción v Ñublense

2026-11-21 23:30 UTC — Primera División - Chile

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Universidad de Concepción (Local)

Prediction 37.49%2.67fair odd
EV -5.51%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -3.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.90%37.47%37.34%39.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.392.402.5247.62%41.88%41.67%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ñublense (Visit)

Prediction 35.06%2.85fair odd
EV -5.68%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -3.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.52%35.08%35.12%35.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.572.552.6940.82%38.92%39.22%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.44%3.64fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.96%27.45%27.54%27.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.283.303.5133.33%30.49%30.30%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Universidad de Concepción (Local): 37.49%; Ñublense (Visit): 35.06%; Draw: 27.44%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.51, with an expected value of -3.68%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.67%EV -5.51%E -2.19%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.29%EV -5.68%E -2.11%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.04%EV -3.68%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-09 12:44
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -7.01%E -2.83%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.51%EV -8.13%E -3.10%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-09 12:05
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -8.14%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -8.13%E -3.10%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-09 12:05
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.14%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -7.08%E -2.67%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-09 12:15
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.14%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -7.08%E -2.67%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-09 16:18
Marathon Bet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 37.75%EV -8.51%E -3.49%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.50%EV -6.38%E -2.39%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.75%EV -8.90%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-09 17:40
1xBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -10.59%E -4.15%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-09 13:39
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -12.34%E -4.94%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -12.19%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-09 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -12.34%E -4.94%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -12.19%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-09 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -12.34%E -4.94%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -12.19%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-09 17:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.32%EV -13.76%E -5.98%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.56%EV -10.59%E -4.15%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.12%EV -10.82%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-09 12:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.98%EV -15.64%E -6.95%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.88%EV -14.09%E -5.75%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.13%EV -13.56%E -4.31%K -6.31%G +0.000%17.0%2026-11-09 12:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.11%EV -21.26%E -10.12%K -19.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 33.52%EV -14.09%E -5.75%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.37%EV -17.68%E -5.89%K -8.84%G +0.000%21.8%2026-11-09 12:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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