The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Universidad Católica (CHI) v Audax Italiano

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Universidad Católica (CHI) (Local)

Prediction 59.98%1.67fair odd
EV -5.23%
Edge -3.31%
Kelly -9.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.25%59.92%60.10%61.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.531.531.5869.44%65.48%65.36%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Audax Italiano (Visit)

Prediction 17.32%5.77fair odd
EV -0.412%
Edge -0.072%
Kelly -0.087%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.23%17.35%17.29%18.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.215.205.7521.05%19.20%19.23%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.70%4.41fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -0.719%
Kelly -0.939%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.84%22.73%22.61%23.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.984.004.2726.32%25.15%25.00%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Universidad Católica (CHI) (Local): 59.98%; Audax Italiano (Visit): 17.32%; Draw: 22.70%. For Audax Italiano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.75, with an expected value of -0.412%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.86%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV -9.94%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -9.20%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-03 23:05
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.64%EV -0.412%E -0.072%K -0.087%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.41%EV -3.07%E -0.719%K -0.939%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-10 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.02%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV -9.94%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -9.20%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-03 23:04
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.02%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV -9.94%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -9.20%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-03 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.02%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV -9.94%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -9.20%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-03 23:05
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.02%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV -9.94%E -1.91%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -9.20%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-03 23:05
BetAnything🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.68%EV -7.63%E -4.95%K -14.13%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -8.21%E -1.55%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -9.20%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-10 14:00
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.33%EV -7.63%E -4.95%K -14.13%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -15.13%E -3.09%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.33%EV -12.61%E -3.27%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 23:05
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.00%EV -8.23%E -5.38%K -15.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -0.412%E -0.072%K -0.087%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.93%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 13:59
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.00%EV -8.23%E -5.38%K -15.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -0.412%E -0.072%K -0.087%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.93%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 14:00
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -8.23%E -5.38%K -15.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -13.40%E -2.68%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -13.74%E -3.62%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-23 07:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -8.23%E -5.38%K -15.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -13.40%E -2.68%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -13.74%E -3.62%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-23 07:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -8.23%E -5.38%K -15.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -13.40%E -2.68%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -13.74%E -3.62%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-23 07:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.25%EV -8.83%E -5.81%K -16.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.45%EV -16.87%E -3.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -13.74%E -3.62%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-03 23:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.25%EV -8.83%E -5.81%K -16.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.45%EV -16.87%E -3.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -13.74%E -3.62%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-03 23:05
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.56%EV -9.43%E -6.24%K -18.49%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.31%EV -1.28%E -0.224%K -0.272%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -4.66%E -1.11%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 13:59
1xBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.46%EV -9.43%E -6.24%K -18.49%G +0.000%5.56I 17.99%NM 16.42%EV -3.70%E -0.666%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.11%EV -10.34%E -2.62%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 19:05
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -10.03%E -6.69%K -20.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -4.74%E -0.862%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -6.93%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-22 23:35
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -10.03%E -6.69%K -20.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -13.40%E -2.68%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -11.47%E -2.94%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-10 13:59
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -10.03%E -6.69%K -20.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -17.73%E -3.73%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -9.20%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-10 19:09
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -13.63%E -9.46%K -30.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -13.40%E -2.68%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -9.20%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-10 20:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -13.63%E -9.46%K -30.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -13.40%E -2.68%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -9.20%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-10 22:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.35%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.86%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.79%0.9%2026-10-10 21:30