The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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La Serena v Deportes Concepción

2026-10-24 15:30 UTC — Primera División - Chile

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

La Serena (Local)

Prediction 41.11%2.43fair odd
EV -6.67%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -5.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.59%40.82%41.11%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.222.202.2746.51%45.07%45.45%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportes Concepción (Visit)

Prediction 30.85%3.24fair odd
EV -7.44%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -3.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.43%30.83%30.85%31.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.963.003.0035.71%33.80%33.33%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.03%3.57fair odd
EV -7.49%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.78%28.35%28.03%29.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.223.303.3033.33%31.03%30.30%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: La Serena (Local): 41.11%; Deportes Concepción (Visit): 30.85%; Draw: 28.03%. For La Serena (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.27, with an expected value of -6.67%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.82%EV -6.67%E -2.94%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.10%EV -8.06%E -2.70%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 22:53
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.49%E -3.33%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.44%E -2.48%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-11 22:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -7.49%E -3.33%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -8.98%E -3.04%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-11 22:29
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -7.49%E -3.33%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.52%E -3.63%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -15.90%E -5.30%K -7.95%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-11 21:59
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -9.55%E -4.34%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.44%E -2.48%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 22:24
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -9.55%E -4.34%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.44%E -2.48%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 22:24
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -9.55%E -4.34%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.44%E -2.48%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 22:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -9.55%E -4.34%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.44%E -2.48%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 22:30
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -11.60%E -5.40%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -13.61%E -4.86%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -15.90%E -5.30%K -7.95%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-11 22:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.