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Deportes Concepción v Union La Calera
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Deportes Concepción (Local)
Prediction 47.34%2.11fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.40%47.36%47.40%50.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.951.952.0555.56%51.19%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Union La Calera (Visit)
Prediction 24.63%4.06fair odd
EV +1.49%
Edge +0.362%
Kelly +0.478%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 4.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.55%24.56%24.57%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.673.604.1229.85%27.27%27.78%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.03%3.57fair odd
EV -4.43%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.18%28.08%28.02%28.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.293.4133.33%30.86%30.40%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportes Concepción (Local): 47.34%; Union La Calera (Visit): 24.63%; Draw: 28.03%. For Union La Calera (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.06. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.51%EV -6.27%E -3.16%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.32%EV +1.49%E +0.362%K +0.478%G +0.007% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.17%EV -4.43%E -1.30%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-11 20:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -14.79%E -8.22%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -1.46%E -0.366%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-11 19:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.36%EV -9.11%E -4.74%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -2.70%E -0.682%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-11 20:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -3.93%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-11 19:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -3.93%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-11 19:18 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -9.11%E -4.74%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -3.93%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -6.11%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 20:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.61%EV -11.47%E -6.14%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 23.43%EV -4.42%E -1.14%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.97%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-11 20:18 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.44%EV -5.32%E -2.66%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -4.71%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 04:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.62%EV -6.74%E -3.42%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.11%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-11 20:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.62%EV -6.74%E -3.42%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.11%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-11 20:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.62%EV -6.74%E -3.42%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.11%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-11 20:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.39%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -4.71%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 19:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.39%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-10 20:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.45%EV -8.16%E -4.21%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 24.48%EV -7.38%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.07%EV -8.08%E -2.46%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-11 17:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.48%EV -9.58%E -5.02%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -7.62%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.34%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-11 20:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.32%E -2.66%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -8.85%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 17:03 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.84%EV -6.27%E -3.16%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -8.85%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 04:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.09%EV -7.21%E -3.68%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -8.85%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.93%EV -7.21%E -3.68%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.09%E -2.76%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-11 08:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -2.95%E -1.44%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -11.32%E -3.14%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 19:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -2.95%E -1.44%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -11.32%E -3.14%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 19:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -2.95%E -1.44%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -11.32%E -3.14%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 19:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -2.95%E -1.44%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -11.32%E -3.14%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 19:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -2.95%E -1.44%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -11.32%E -3.14%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 19:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.15%EV -7.21%E -3.68%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.67%EV -11.32%E -3.14%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.71%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-11 14:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -5.32%E -2.66%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -11.32%E -3.14%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-11 19:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -9.58%E -5.02%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -11.32%E -3.14%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-11 17:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -9.58%E -5.02%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -11.32%E -3.14%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-11 20:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.53%EV -11.47%E -6.14%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -11.32%E -3.14%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-11 16:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -13.78%E -3.94%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-11 19:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.78%E -3.94%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-11 19:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.78%E -3.94%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-11 19:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.78%E -3.94%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-11 19:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.78%E -3.94%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-11 17:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.78%E -3.94%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-11 17:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.78%E -3.94%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-11 17:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.78%E -3.94%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-11 17:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -9.58%E -5.02%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -13.78%E -3.94%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -7.21%E -3.68%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.94%EV -15.01%E -4.35%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.41%EV -11.72%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-11 19:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -16.24%E -4.78%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-10-11 19:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -16.24%E -4.78%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-10-11 19:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 46.51%EV -13.84%E -7.60%K -16.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.27%EV -17.48%E -5.22%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.22%EV -15.92%E -5.31%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 18.1% | 2026-10-11 20:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-10-11 20:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-10-11 20:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-10-11 20:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46% | 2.0% | 2026-10-11 17:10 |