The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Deportes Concepción v Palestino

Kickoff: 2026-11-02 23:30 UTC

Final: Deportes Concepción 1–0 Palestino

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

42 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Deportes Concepción (Local)

Prediction 36.01%2.78fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.84%36.02%35.93%38.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.332.522.502.7042.92%39.65%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palestino (Visit)

Prediction 35.64%2.81fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.721%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.97%35.68%35.74%38.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.582.602.7545.45%38.77%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.35%3.53fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.17%28.30%28.33%29.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.213.233.4033.90%31.14%31.01%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportes Concepción (Local): 36.01%; Palestino (Visit): 35.64%; Draw: 28.35%. For Palestino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -1.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.78%EV -2.78%E -1.03%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.64%EV -3.41%E -1.26%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.58%EV -4.18%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-02 23:25
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -4.58%E -1.73%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -5.55%E -2.09%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-02 23:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -4.58%E -1.73%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.99%EV -18.02%E -7.84%K -13.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-02 23:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.92%EV -5.66%E -2.16%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.12%EV -4.48%E -1.67%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-02 23:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.92%EV -5.66%E -2.16%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.12%EV -4.48%E -1.67%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-02 23:10
BetAnything🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.92%EV -5.66%E -2.16%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.12%EV -4.48%E -1.67%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-02 23:15
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.74%EV -5.66%E -2.16%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -9.11%E -3.57%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-02 23:09
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.74%EV -5.66%E -2.16%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -9.11%E -3.57%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-02 23:08
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -5.66%E -2.16%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.62%E -2.53%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -9.28%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-02 23:10
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -6.38%E -2.45%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -7.33%E -2.82%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-02 23:10
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -6.38%E -2.45%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -7.33%E -2.82%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-02 04:10
Betsson🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -6.38%E -2.45%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -7.33%E -2.82%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-02 23:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.47%EV -6.38%E -2.45%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -9.11%E -3.57%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-02 23:10
BetUS🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -6.38%E -2.45%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -9.11%E -3.57%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -9.28%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-02 23:19
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.18%E -3.21%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -9.11%E -3.57%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-02 23:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.18%E -3.21%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -9.11%E -3.57%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-02 23:15
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.18%E -3.21%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -9.11%E -3.57%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -10.70%E -3.40%K -4.98%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-02 23:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 36.67%EV -9.62%E -3.83%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.27%EV -6.97%E -2.67%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.06%EV -7.02%E -2.14%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 12:49
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -6.62%E -2.53%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-02 23:10
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -7.33%E -2.82%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -9.28%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-02 23:10
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -10.89%E -4.36%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.28%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.3%2026-11-02 23:15
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.80%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.80%EV -10.89%E -4.36%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.41%EV -10.70%E -3.40%K -4.98%G +0.000%11.7%2026-11-02 23:15
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -7.33%E -2.82%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -14.95%E -4.98%K -7.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-02 23:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -7.33%E -2.82%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -14.95%E -4.98%K -7.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-02 23:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -7.33%E -2.82%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -14.95%E -4.98%K -7.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-02 23:10
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.89%E -4.36%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -12.12%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-02 23:20
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.89%E -4.36%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -12.12%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-02 23:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.89%E -4.36%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -12.12%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-02 04:10
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.89%E -4.36%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -12.12%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-02 04:10
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.89%E -4.36%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -12.12%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-02 04:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.89%E -4.36%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -12.12%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-02 04:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -9.98%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -12.67%E -5.17%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -12.12%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%13.1%2026-11-02 23:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -11.78%E -4.81%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -1.98%E -0.721%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-30 09:30
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -11.78%E -4.81%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -1.98%E -0.721%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-30 09:30
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -11.78%E -4.81%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -1.98%E -0.721%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-30 09:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -11.78%E -4.81%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -1.98%E -0.721%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-30 09:29
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -11.78%E -4.81%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -1.98%E -0.721%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-30 09:30
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -13.58%E -5.66%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -10.89%E -4.36%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -12.12%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-31 06:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 34.43%EV -13.58%E -5.66%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 37.56%EV -21.59%E -9.81%K -17.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.01%EV -16.37%E -5.55%K -8.40%G +0.000%21.0%2026-11-02 23:10
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -15.38%E -6.54%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.00%EV -6.26%E -2.38%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.28%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-30 09:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.94%EV -16.10%E -6.91%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.00%EV -7.33%E -2.82%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.06%EV -10.70%E -3.40%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-30 09:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.94%EV -16.10%E -6.91%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.00%EV -7.33%E -2.82%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.06%EV -10.70%E -3.40%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-30 09:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.93%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.93%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13%1.6%2026-11-02 23:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.93%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.93%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13%1.6%2026-11-02 23:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.93%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.93%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13%1.6%2026-11-02 23:20
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.27%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.31%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-11-02 23:10

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