The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Coquimbo Unido v Universidad de Concepción

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coquimbo Unido (Local)

Prediction 67.31%1.49fair odd
EV -7.12%
Edge -5.16%
Kelly -18.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.65%67.18%67.31%68.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.361.361.3875.19%73.43%73.53%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Universidad de Concepción (Visit)

Prediction 12.61%7.93fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -0.378%
Kelly -0.434%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.03%12.58%12.61%13.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.067.007.7015.38%14.17%14.29%12.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.08%4.98fair odd
EV -3.60%
Edge -0.750%
Kelly -0.947%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.44%20.24%20.08%21.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.544.604.8023.81%22.03%21.74%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Coquimbo Unido (Local): 67.31%; Universidad de Concepción (Visit): 12.61%; Draw: 20.08%. For Universidad de Concepción (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 7.70, with an expected value of -2.91%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -11.73%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -5.61%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-20 17:00
Unibet1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -11.73%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -5.61%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-20 17:00
Grosvenor1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -11.73%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -5.61%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-20 17:00
Unibet (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -11.73%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -5.61%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-20 17:00
TABtouch1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -11.73%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -5.61%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-20 17:00
FanDuel1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -7.79%E -5.69%K -21.05%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -5.43%E -0.724%K -0.835%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -3.60%E -0.750%K -0.947%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-24 19:15
Marathon Bet1.37I 72.99%NM 67.61%EV -7.79%E -5.69%K -21.05%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.03%EV -2.91%E -0.378%K -0.434%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.36%EV -8.62%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-24 00:40
SportsBet1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.70%EV -8.58%E -1.18%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.59%EV -5.61%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-24 02:19
BetRivers1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -11.73%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-20 17:00
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -11.73%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -15.65%E -3.73%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-20 17:00
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -11.73%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -15.65%E -3.73%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-20 17:05
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -11.73%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -15.65%E -3.73%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-20 17:00
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -18.04%E -2.78%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -13.04%E -3.01%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-24 02:20
LiveScore Bet1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -9.14%E -6.77%K -26.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -11.73%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-20 17:00
Virgin Bet1.34I 74.63%NM 67.15%EV -9.81%E -7.32%K -28.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -11.73%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -9.62%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-20 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.48%E -7.88%K -31.76%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -11.73%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -9.62%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-25 18:45
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.48%E -7.88%K -31.76%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -11.73%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -9.62%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-24 02:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.39I 71.94%NM 67.28%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.16%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.55%6.9%2026-07-25 18:30