Language:English
Vila Nova v Londrina
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vila Nova (Local)
Prediction 56.19%1.78fair odd
EV -5.04%
Edge -2.99%
Kelly -7.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.69
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.79%56.22%56.16%58.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.631.641.6964.52%61.23%60.98%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Londrina (Visit)
Prediction 18.13%5.52fair odd
EV +0.059%
Edge +0.011%
Kelly +0.013%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.94%18.08%18.20%19.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.065.005.5221.74%19.77%20.00%18.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.69%3.89fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -0.980%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.40%25.69%25.64%26.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.563.553.7529.41%28.09%28.17%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 56.19%; Londrina (Visit): 18.13%; Draw: 25.69%. For Londrina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.517. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.520, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.059%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.01%EV -7.85%E -4.79%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 5.52I 18.12%NM 16.94%EV +0.059%E +0.011%K +0.013%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.05%EV -7.78%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-25 23:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.57%EV -8.42%E -5.16%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -0.304%E -0.055%K -0.067%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.96%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -0.304%E -0.055%K -0.067%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.96%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-25 23:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.74%EV -5.04%E -2.99%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 5.44I 18.38%NM 17.63%EV -1.39%E -0.256%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.64%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-25 23:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.00%EV -7.29%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -4.84%E -0.921%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -3.67%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-25 23:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.41%EV -7.29%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -4.84%E -0.921%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-25 23:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -6.17%E -3.69%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -5.74%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -6.17%E -3.69%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -5.74%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -6.17%E -3.69%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -5.74%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.52%EV -7.29%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -5.74%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -6.24%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-25 23:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.52%EV -7.29%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -5.74%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -6.24%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-25 23:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.52%EV -7.29%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -5.74%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -6.24%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-25 23:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.52%EV -7.29%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -5.74%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -6.24%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-25 23:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.52%EV -7.29%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -5.74%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -6.24%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-25 23:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.52%EV -7.29%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -5.74%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -6.24%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-25 23:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.52%EV -7.29%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -5.74%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -6.24%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-25 23:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -12.91%E -8.33%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -5.74%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -4.96%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-25 22:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.17%EV -7.85%E -4.79%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.89%EV -6.65%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -8.81%E -2.48%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-25 23:18 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -7.55%E -1.48%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-25 23:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -7.55%E -1.48%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-25 23:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -7.29%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.22%EV -8.46%E -1.68%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.00%EV -9.07%E -2.56%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-25 23:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.91%EV -5.04%E -2.99%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -3.67%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-25 23:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.46%EV -7.85%E -4.79%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -4.96%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-25 23:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.92%EV -7.29%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-25 23:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.17%E -3.69%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.66%E -3.72%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-25 23:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.17%E -3.69%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.66%E -3.72%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-25 23:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.17%E -3.69%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.66%E -3.72%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-25 23:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.17%E -3.69%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.66%E -3.72%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-25 23:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.17%E -3.69%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.66%E -3.72%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-25 23:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-25 23:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.02%EV -8.42%E -5.16%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.72%EV -8.81%E -2.48%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-25 23:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.17%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -8.81%E -2.48%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-25 23:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-25 23:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.39%EV -8.42%E -5.16%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -12.66%E -3.72%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -10.10%E -6.31%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-25 23:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -10.10%E -6.31%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-25 23:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -10.10%E -6.31%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-25 23:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -11.79%E -7.51%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.06%EV -10.10%E -6.31%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.31%EV -11.18%E -2.28%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-25 23:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.06%EV -10.10%E -6.31%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.31%EV -11.18%E -2.28%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-25 23:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.06%EV -10.10%E -6.31%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.31%EV -11.18%E -2.28%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-25 23:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -11.79%E -7.51%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.05%EV -11.18%E -2.28%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -11.38%E -3.30%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-25 22:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -11.79%E -7.51%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.05%EV -11.18%E -2.28%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -11.38%E -3.30%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-25 23:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -7.29%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -12.99%E -2.71%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.10%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -16.62%E -3.61%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.10%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -16.62%E -3.61%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.25%EV -9.54%E -5.93%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -16.62%E -3.61%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.25%EV -9.54%E -5.93%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -16.62%E -3.61%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -10.10%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.19% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.04% | 1.1% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.19% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.04% | 1.1% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.19% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.04% | 1.1% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.19% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.04% | 1.1% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.00% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.71% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.28% | 1.4% | 2026-09-25 23:25 |