The School of Odds
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Vila Nova v Londrina

2026-09-25 23:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vila Nova (Local)

Prediction 55.81%1.79fair odd
EV -7.91%
Edge -4.80%
Kelly -12.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.81%55.81%55.81%56.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.631.651.6563.69%61.47%60.61%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Londrina (Visit)

Prediction 18.57%5.39fair odd
EV -5.32%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.28%18.57%18.57%18.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.804.975.105.1020.83%20.12%19.61%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.63%3.90fair odd
EV -5.19%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.20%25.63%25.63%25.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.613.703.7028.99%27.72%27.03%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Vila Nova (Local): 55.81%; Londrina (Visit): 18.57%; Draw: 25.63%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.90. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.70, with an expected value of -5.19%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -7.91%E -4.80%K -12.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.32%E -1.04%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.19%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-16 08:15
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -7.91%E -4.80%K -12.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.32%E -1.04%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.19%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-16 08:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -7.91%E -4.80%K -12.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.32%E -1.04%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.19%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-16 08:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -7.91%E -4.80%K -12.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.32%E -1.04%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.19%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-16 08:15
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -7.91%E -4.80%K -12.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.32%E -1.04%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.19%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-16 08:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -7.91%E -4.80%K -12.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.32%E -1.04%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.19%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-16 08:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -7.91%E -4.80%K -12.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.32%E -1.04%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.19%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-16 08:15
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.81%EV -9.03%E -5.54%K -14.33%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -9.03%E -1.84%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -9.03%E -2.54%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-16 07:55
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -10.70%E -6.69%K -17.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -10.89%E -2.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.31%E -2.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-16 07:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -10.70%E -6.69%K -17.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -10.89%E -2.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.31%E -2.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-16 07:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -10.70%E -6.69%K -17.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -10.89%E -2.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.31%E -2.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-16 07:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -10.70%E -6.69%K -17.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -10.89%E -2.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.31%E -2.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-16 07:55
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.11%EV -12.38%E -7.88%K -21.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.35%EV -10.89%E -2.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.53%EV -11.59%E -3.36%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-16 07:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.