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Vila Nova v Grêmio Novorizontino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vila Nova (Local)
Prediction 33.19%3.01fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.713%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.05%33.37%33.16%35.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.732.752.9540.00%36.60%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)
Prediction 35.74%2.80fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.887%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.45%35.60%35.72%36.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.582.602.7341.67%38.70%38.46%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.07%3.22fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.55%31.04%31.12%32.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.952.953.1035.71%33.85%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 33.19%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit): 35.74%; Draw: 31.07%. For Vila Nova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.95, with an expected value of -2.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.64%EV -2.10%E -0.713%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.27%EV -2.42%E -0.887%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.09%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-18 20:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%EV -3.76%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.19%EV -4.21%E -1.57%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.30%EV -9.27%E -3.17%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-18 20:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%EV -3.76%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.19%EV -4.21%E -1.57%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.30%EV -9.27%E -3.17%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-18 20:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%EV -3.76%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.19%EV -4.21%E -1.57%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.30%EV -9.27%E -3.17%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-18 20:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -5.28%E -1.99%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-18 20:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -7.07%E -2.72%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 17:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.07%E -2.72%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -8.34%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-18 20:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.07%E -2.72%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -8.34%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-18 21:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.63%EV -6.42%E -2.28%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 35.53%EV -7.43%E -2.87%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 31.84%EV -10.20%E -3.53%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-18 15:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.28%EV -6.75%E -2.40%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.55%EV -6.00%E -2.28%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 20:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -6.35%E -2.43%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-18 20:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.16%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -8.86%E -3.47%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.44%EV -5.23%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-18 20:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -8.86%E -3.47%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-18 15:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.06%EV -6.00%E -2.28%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -10.51%E -3.65%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-18 20:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.03%EV -8.86%E -3.47%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -8.34%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-18 17:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.64%E -4.26%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-18 20:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.64%E -4.26%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-18 20:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -8.86%E -3.47%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-18 15:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.22%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.82%EV -8.86%E -3.47%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -8.34%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-18 15:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.22%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.82%EV -8.86%E -3.47%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -8.34%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-18 15:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -6.35%E -2.43%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-18 20:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -6.35%E -2.43%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-18 20:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -6.35%E -2.43%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-18 20:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -6.35%E -2.43%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -13.00%E -4.64%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-18 20:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.64%E -4.26%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -10.51%E -3.65%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-18 17:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -3.49%E -1.29%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -5.23%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 20:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -3.49%E -1.29%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -5.23%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 20:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -3.49%E -1.29%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -5.23%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 20:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -3.49%E -1.29%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -5.23%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 20:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -3.49%E -1.29%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -5.23%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 20:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -3.49%E -1.29%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -5.23%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 20:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -3.49%E -1.29%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -5.23%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 20:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -10.64%E -4.26%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-18 18:03 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -12.43%E -5.07%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-18 18:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -12.43%E -5.07%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-18 18:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -12.43%E -5.07%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-18 18:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -12.43%E -5.07%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-18 18:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -12.43%E -5.07%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-18 20:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.64%E -4.26%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-18 20:53 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -12.06%E -4.55%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -8.86%E -3.47%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-18 20:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -12.72%E -4.84%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -7.07%E -2.72%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-18 20:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.39%EV -13.05%E -4.98%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.45%EV -14.22%E -5.92%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-10-18 21:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -13.72%E -5.28%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -7.07%E -2.72%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -3.68%E -1.19%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-18 20:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.47%EV -13.72%E -5.28%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.15%EV -8.86%E -3.47%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -8.34%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-18 20:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.47%EV -13.72%E -5.28%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.15%EV -8.86%E -3.47%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -8.34%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-18 20:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.91%EV -15.38%E -6.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.91%EV -8.86%E -3.47%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.18%EV -8.34%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-18 20:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.73%EV -15.38%E -6.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.73%EV -8.86%E -3.47%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.54%EV -9.89%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-18 20:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.45%EV -17.04%E -6.81%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.45%EV -5.28%E -1.99%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV -11.44%E -4.02%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-18 21:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.87%EV -17.04%E -6.81%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.87%EV -10.64%E -4.26%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.27%EV -10.51%E -3.65%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-10-18 20:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.46% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 1.0% | 2026-10-18 21:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.78% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85% | 1.3% | 2026-10-18 20:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.78% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85% | 1.3% | 2026-10-18 20:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.65% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.75% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60% | 2.1% | 2026-10-18 20:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.94% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.63% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.43% | 2.6% | 2026-10-18 21:00 |