The School of Odds
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Vila Nova v Grêmio Novorizontino

2026-10-18 21:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vila Nova (Local)

Prediction 33.13%3.02fair odd
EV -7.25%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -4.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.12%33.13%33.13%33.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.752.802.8038.02%36.38%35.71%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)

Prediction 37.49%2.67fair odd
EV -7.03%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -4.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.49%37.49%37.49%37.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.332.432.482.4842.92%41.13%40.32%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.39%3.40fair odd
EV -5.97%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -2.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.00%29.39%29.39%29.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.133.203.2033.33%31.94%31.25%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Vila Nova (Local): 33.13%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit): 37.49%; Draw: 29.39%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.40. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.20, with an expected value of -5.97%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.25%E -2.59%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -7.03%E -2.83%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 21:54
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.25%E -2.59%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -7.03%E -2.83%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 21:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.25%E -2.59%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -7.03%E -2.83%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 21:49
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.25%E -2.59%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -7.03%E -2.83%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 21:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.25%E -2.59%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -7.03%E -2.83%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.25%E -2.59%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -7.03%E -2.83%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 21:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.25%E -2.59%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -7.03%E -2.83%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 21:49
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -8.90%E -3.24%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.49%EV -8.90%E -3.66%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.39%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-11 21:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.12%EV -10.56%E -3.91%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.57%EV -10.78%E -4.53%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -10.37%E -3.40%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.12%EV -10.56%E -3.91%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.57%EV -10.78%E -4.53%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -10.37%E -3.40%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 21:49
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.12%EV -10.56%E -3.91%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.57%EV -10.78%E -4.53%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -10.37%E -3.40%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 21:50
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.37%EV -12.22%E -4.61%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.63%EV -11.90%E -5.07%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -10.37%E -3.40%K -5.06%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-11 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.27%EV -12.88%E -4.90%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.56%EV -12.65%E -5.43%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -11.84%E -3.95%K -5.92%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-11 21:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.