Language:English
Vila Nova v Cuiabá
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vila Nova (Local)
Prediction 43.22%2.31fair odd
EV -4.91%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -4.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.34%43.37%43.20%46.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.082.102.2051.81%47.97%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cuiabá (Visit)
Prediction 26.12%3.83fair odd
EV +0.575%
Edge +0.149%
Kelly +0.202%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.22%26.07%26.05%27.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.563.603.8531.25%28.11%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.65%3.26fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.597%
Kelly -0.868%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.89%30.57%30.75%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.023.003.2034.72%33.17%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 43.22%; Cuiabá (Visit): 26.12%; Draw: 30.65%. For Cuiabá (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.575%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -12.69%E -6.28%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV +0.575%E +0.149%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -3.44%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 03:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -12.69%E -6.28%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV +0.575%E +0.149%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -3.44%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 03:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -12.69%E -6.28%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV +0.575%E +0.149%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -3.44%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 03:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -12.69%E -6.28%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV +0.575%E +0.149%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -3.44%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 03:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -12.69%E -6.28%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV +0.575%E +0.149%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -3.44%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 03:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -12.69%E -6.28%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV +0.575%E +0.149%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -3.44%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 03:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -12.69%E -6.28%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV +0.575%E +0.149%K +0.202%G +0.001% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -3.44%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 03:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.23%EV -5.34%E -2.44%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.11%EV -1.52%E -0.402%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.66%EV -8.35%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-05 10:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.68%EV -13.55%E -6.78%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -2.04%E -0.543%K -0.741%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.96%EV -6.51%E -2.13%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-04 03:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.89%EV -6.64%E -3.07%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -4.65%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.73%EV -10.49%E -3.59%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-04 18:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.89%EV -6.64%E -3.07%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -4.65%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.73%EV -10.49%E -3.59%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-04 19:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.89%EV -6.64%E -3.07%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -4.65%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.73%EV -10.49%E -3.59%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-04 19:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.02%EV -7.50%E -3.51%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -4.65%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.75%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 10:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -15.28%E -7.80%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -4.65%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-04 03:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -15.28%E -7.80%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -4.65%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-04 03:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.78%EV -15.71%E -8.06%K -16.54%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.46%EV -4.65%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-04 03:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.91%EV -16.15%E -8.32%K -17.18%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -4.65%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-04 03:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.81%EV -16.58%E -8.59%K -17.83%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%EV -4.65%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.97%EV -9.57%E -3.25%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-04 03:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -8.37%E -3.95%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -5.96%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -3.44%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 15:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.07%E -3.29%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.96%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-04 23:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.07%E -3.29%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -5.96%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-05 11:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.07%E -3.29%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -5.96%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-05 11:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.07%E -3.29%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -5.96%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-05 11:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.07%E -3.29%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -5.96%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-05 11:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.07%E -3.29%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -5.96%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.11%EV -9.23%E -4.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.02%EV -7.00%E -1.97%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.98%E -1.60%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 11:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.28%EV -10.10%E -4.85%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.02%EV -7.52%E -2.13%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -4.98%E -1.60%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 11:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.91%E -2.23%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-04 23:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -9.23%E -4.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -1.91%E -0.597%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 07:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -8.37%E -3.95%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -3.44%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-04 18:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -5.77%E -2.65%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-05 11:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.23%E -4.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-05 07:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -9.23%E -4.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-05 09:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -7.07%E -3.29%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -9.87%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -9.57%E -3.25%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-04 18:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -7.07%E -3.29%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -9.87%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -9.57%E -3.25%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-04 18:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -11.39%E -5.56%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -4.98%E -1.60%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-04 18:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -11.39%E -5.56%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -4.98%E -1.60%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-04 18:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -9.23%E -4.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 11:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -9.23%E -4.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 11:44 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -11.39%E -5.56%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-04 19:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -13.55%E -6.78%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -4.98%E -1.60%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-04 19:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.20%EV -11.39%E -5.56%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -11.72%E -4.07%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 42.41%EV -7.93%E -3.72%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.97%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62%EV -9.57%E -3.25%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-04 18:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.07%E -3.29%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -13.79%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -4.98%E -1.60%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-04 19:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.23%E -4.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -16.41%E -5.13%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-04 19:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.23%E -4.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -16.41%E -5.13%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-04 19:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.23%E -4.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -16.41%E -5.13%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-04 19:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.23%E -4.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -16.41%E -5.13%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-04 19:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (2)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.89% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.22% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.89% | 4.5% | 2026-10-05 14:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 42.08% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.25% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.66% | 16.5% | 2026-10-05 11:00 |