The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Vila Nova v Criciuma

2026-11-07 23:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vila Nova (Local)

Prediction 41.35%2.42fair odd
EV -4.89%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -3.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.54%41.19%41.47%42.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.232.222.3046.51%44.94%45.05%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Criciuma (Visit)

Prediction 28.08%3.56fair odd
EV -5.10%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.60%28.18%28.09%29.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.303.3833.33%30.61%30.30%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.57%3.27fair odd
EV -4.61%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.73%30.63%30.44%31.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.003.003.1234.48%33.32%33.33%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Vila Nova (Local): 41.35%; Criciuma (Visit): 28.08%; Draw: 30.57%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.27. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.12, with an expected value of -4.61%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -4.89%E -2.13%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -10.15%E -3.17%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.23%E -1.69%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 00:20
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.47%EV -5.31%E -2.32%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.10%EV -5.10%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.44%EV -4.61%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 00:50
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -5.94%E -1.77%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.23%E -1.69%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 23:50
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.34%E -2.23%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.34%E -3.91%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-01 00:45
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.34%E -2.23%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.34%E -3.91%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-01 00:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.34%E -2.23%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.34%E -3.91%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-01 00:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.34%E -2.23%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.34%E -3.91%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-01 00:45
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.27%EV -8.20%E -3.69%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.75%E -2.69%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -8.28%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 23:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -9.03%E -4.10%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.34%E -2.23%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.23%E -1.69%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-01 00:10
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.70%EV -9.03%E -4.10%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -8.75%E -2.69%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 23:50
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -9.03%E -4.10%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.34%E -2.23%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.28%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 23:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -9.03%E -4.10%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.75%E -2.69%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.28%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-31 23:50
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.03%E -4.10%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -15.77%E -5.26%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.28%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-01 00:20
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.72%EV -10.27%E -4.73%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.60%EV -7.91%E -2.41%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.69%EV -9.81%E -3.33%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-31 23:55
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.75%E -2.69%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -8.28%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-31 23:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 40.91%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.63%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.46%16.4%2026-10-31 23:50