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Vila Nova v Clube de Regatas Brasil

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vila Nova (Local)

Prediction 44.55%2.24fair odd
EV -5.55%
Edge -2.62%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.15%44.55%44.55%44.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.092.112.1249.02%47.88%47.39%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Clube de Regatas Brasil (Visit)

Prediction 27.52%3.63fair odd
EV -6.44%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.52%27.52%27.52%27.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.353.403.4030.77%29.85%29.41%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.93%3.58fair odd
EV -6.44%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.93%27.93%27.93%28.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.303.353.3531.25%30.30%29.85%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 44.55%; Clube de Regatas Brasil (Visit): 27.52%; Draw: 27.93%. For Vila Nova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.12, with an expected value of -5.55%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -5.55%E -2.62%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.44%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 06:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -5.55%E -2.62%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.44%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 06:30
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -5.55%E -2.62%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.44%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 06:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -5.55%E -2.62%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.44%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 06:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -5.55%E -2.62%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.44%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 06:30
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -5.55%E -2.62%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.44%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 06:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -5.55%E -2.62%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.44%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 06:30
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -6.44%E -3.07%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.44%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 06:30
Grosvenor🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.54%EV -7.78%E -3.76%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -7.81%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-06 06:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.29%EV -8.22%E -3.99%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -9.19%E -2.78%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.07%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-06 06:30
TABtouch🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.67%E -4.23%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.19%E -2.78%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-06 06:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.15%EV -9.11%E -4.47%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-06 06:30
LeoVegas🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.15%EV -9.11%E -4.47%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-06 06:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.15%EV -9.11%E -4.47%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-06 06:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.