Language:English
Sport Recife v São Bernardo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sport Recife (Local)
Prediction 50.20%1.99fair odd
EV -5.63%
Edge -2.99%
Kelly -6.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.86%50.24%50.22%52.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.841.851.8858.82%54.46%54.05%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
São Bernardo (Visit)
Prediction 23.56%4.24fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.595%
Kelly -0.785%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.82%23.46%23.56%24.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.873.904.1427.78%25.87%25.64%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.24%3.81fair odd
EV -5.52%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.56%26.30%26.22%27.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.463.503.6030.30%28.92%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport Recife (Local): 50.20%; São Bernardo (Visit): 23.56%; Draw: 26.24%. For São Bernardo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.14, with an expected value of -2.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -5.63%E -2.99%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -5.63%E -2.99%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 09:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -5.63%E -2.99%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 09:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -5.63%E -2.99%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -5.63%E -2.99%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 09:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -5.63%E -2.99%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -5.63%E -2.99%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -6.13%E -3.28%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -5.76%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 03:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.79%EV -6.63%E -3.57%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-03 07:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.79%EV -6.63%E -3.57%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-03 07:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.79%EV -6.63%E -3.57%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-03 07:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.00%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 22.79%EV -2.46%E -0.595%K -0.785%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.52%E -1.53%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 02:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -5.76%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.52%E -1.53%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -5.76%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.52%E -1.53%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 23:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -5.76%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.52%E -1.53%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 07:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.30%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -5.52%E -1.53%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 06:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 06:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -5.76%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -13.39%E -4.06%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 11:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -5.76%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -13.39%E -4.06%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 11:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -5.76%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -13.39%E -4.06%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 11:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -5.76%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -13.39%E -4.06%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 11:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.39%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -9.30%E -2.41%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -10.77%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.39%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -9.30%E -2.41%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -10.77%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -12.83%E -3.47%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-03 22:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.47%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.77%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -8.14%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -6.94%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -6.83%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-04 20:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -8.14%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-03 03:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -8.14%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -11.65%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -10.77%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-02 23:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.14%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -15.19%E -4.22%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -10.77%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-03 22:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.14%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -15.19%E -4.22%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -10.77%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-03 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.14%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -15.19%E -4.22%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -10.77%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.14%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -15.19%E -4.22%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -10.77%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-03 22:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.90%EV -8.64%E -4.75%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 23.22%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 25.88%EV -6.05%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-05 10:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.63%EV -8.64%E -4.75%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -5.76%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-03 15:05 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.49%EV -8.64%E -4.75%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -11.65%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.77%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-05 06:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.29%EV -8.64%E -4.75%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.65%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -12.08%E -3.61%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.29%EV -8.64%E -4.75%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.65%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -12.08%E -3.61%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.29%EV -8.64%E -4.75%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.65%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -12.08%E -3.61%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 09:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.27%EV -9.14%E -5.05%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -12.83%E -3.47%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.62%EV -12.08%E -3.61%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.15%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.13%EV -6.23%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 25.72%EV -6.05%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-02 22:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-03 23:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -10.47%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-03 23:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -10.47%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-03 12:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.08%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.41%EV -9.30%E -2.41%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -10.77%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-05 04:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.21%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -12.83%E -3.47%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -13.39%E -4.06%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-05 09:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.47%EV -12.16%E -6.95%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -11.65%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -10.77%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-10-03 12:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.62%EV -14.67%E -8.63%K -20.95%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.82%EV -3.41%E -0.831%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-05 11:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.98% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.09% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.92% | 2.9% | 2026-10-05 13:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.98% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.09% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.92% | 2.9% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.98% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.09% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.92% | 2.9% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.98% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.09% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.92% | 2.9% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.12% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.03% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.85% | 3.2% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |