Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sport Recife v São Bernardo

2026-10-06 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sport Recife (Local)

Prediction 49.27%2.03fair odd
EV -7.37%
Edge -3.92%
Kelly -8.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.11%49.27%49.27%49.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.851.881.8855.56%53.99%53.19%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

São Bernardo (Visit)

Prediction 24.31%4.11fair odd
EV -6.42%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.17%24.31%24.31%24.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.783.853.8527.40%26.48%25.97%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.42%3.78fair odd
EV -6.21%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -2.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.24%26.42%26.42%26.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.473.553.5529.85%28.86%28.17%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sport Recife (Local): 49.27%; São Bernardo (Visit): 24.31%; Draw: 26.42%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.55, with an expected value of -6.21%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -7.37%E -3.92%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -6.42%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-29 23:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -7.37%E -3.92%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -6.42%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-29 23:35
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -7.37%E -3.92%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -6.42%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-29 23:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -7.37%E -3.92%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -6.42%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-29 23:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -7.37%E -3.92%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -6.42%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-29 23:35
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -7.37%E -3.92%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -6.42%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-29 23:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -7.37%E -3.92%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -6.42%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-29 23:34
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.27%EV -8.85%E -4.78%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.31%EV -8.85%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.42%EV -8.85%E -2.56%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-29 23:35
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.14%EV -10.33%E -5.67%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -10.06%E -2.72%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-29 23:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.14%EV -10.33%E -5.67%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -10.06%E -2.72%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-29 23:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.14%EV -10.33%E -5.67%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -10.06%E -2.72%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-29 23:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.11%EV -10.82%E -5.98%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.35%EV -11.28%E -3.09%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.53%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-29 23:35
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -11.31%E -6.28%K -14.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.29%EV -11.28%E -3.09%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.46%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-29 23:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.