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Sport Recife v Fortaleza
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sport Recife (Local)
Prediction 40.00%2.50fair odd
EV +4.01%
Edge +1.54%
Kelly +2.51%
Growth +0.101%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.98%39.55%39.96%41.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.352.302.6045.45%42.49%43.48%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fortaleza (Visit)
Prediction 31.51%3.17fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.959%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.29%32.02%31.55%38.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.862.903.0843.48%34.97%34.48%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.49%3.51fair odd
EV +0.276%
Edge +0.078%
Kelly +0.109%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.15%28.42%28.48%30.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.183.153.5233.90%31.43%31.75%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport Recife (Local): 40.00%; Fortaleza (Visit): 31.51%; Draw: 28.49%. For Sport Recife (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.50. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.01%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV +4.01%E +1.54%K +2.51%G +0.101% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%EV -27.53%E -11.97%K -21.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-10-16 20:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV +2.01%E +0.788%K +1.30%G +0.026% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -13.35%E -4.85%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -10.26%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV +2.01%E +0.788%K +1.30%G +0.026% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -13.35%E -4.85%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -10.26%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV +2.01%E +0.788%K +1.30%G +0.026% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -13.35%E -4.85%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -10.26%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV +2.01%E +0.788%K +1.30%G +0.026% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -13.35%E -4.85%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -10.26%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV +2.01%E +0.788%K +1.30%G +0.026% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -13.35%E -4.85%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -10.26%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV +2.01%E +0.788%K +1.30%G +0.026% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -13.35%E -4.85%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -10.26%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV +2.01%E +0.788%K +1.30%G +0.026% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -13.35%E -4.85%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -10.26%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-16 23:23 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.61%EV -0.790%E -0.319%K -0.534%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.63%EV -14.93%E -5.53%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -13.11%E -4.30%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-16 23:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -1.99%E -0.812%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.89%EV -16.50%E -6.23%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.45%EV -13.11%E -4.30%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -1.99%E -0.812%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.89%EV -16.50%E -6.23%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.45%EV -13.11%E -4.30%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.58%EV -2.79%E -1.15%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -17.13%E -6.51%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -14.54%E -4.85%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.43%EV -2.79%E -1.15%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.05%EV -18.08%E -6.95%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.51%EV -14.54%E -4.85%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.54%EV -3.99%E -1.66%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.73%EV -18.08%E -6.95%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.73%EV -15.96%E -5.41%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -4.79%E -2.01%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -3.90%E -1.28%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-16 23:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -5.99%E -2.55%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -10.20%E -3.58%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-16 23:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -5.99%E -2.55%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -8.62%E -2.97%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-16 23:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.23%EV -5.99%E -2.55%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.55%EV -18.08%E -6.95%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -5.99%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-16 23:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.35%EV -6.79%E -2.91%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.28%EV -2.95%E -0.959%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.37%EV +0.276%E +0.078%K +0.109%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.35%EV -6.79%E -2.91%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.28%EV -2.95%E -0.959%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.37%EV +0.276%E +0.078%K +0.109%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-16 23:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.53%EV -6.79%E -2.91%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 31.87%EV -8.94%E -3.09%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.60%EV -8.27%E -2.57%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-16 23:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -3.90%E -1.28%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.57%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-16 23:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.99%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-16 23:28 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-16 23:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.05%E -2.39%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.99%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-16 23:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.05%E -2.39%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.99%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-16 23:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-16 23:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.62%E -2.97%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-16 23:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.62%E -2.97%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-16 23:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.62%E -2.97%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-16 23:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.62%E -2.97%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-16 23:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-16 23:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-16 23:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -7.05%E -2.39%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.26%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-16 23:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.62%E -2.97%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.25%E -3.21%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -14.54%E -4.85%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-16 23:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.25%E -3.21%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -14.54%E -4.85%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-16 23:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.94%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -9.57%E -3.33%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -14.54%E -4.85%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-16 23:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.94%EV -7.99%E -3.47%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -9.57%E -3.33%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -14.54%E -4.85%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-16 23:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.57%EV -9.59%E -4.24%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV -3.90%E -1.28%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.14%E -0.924%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.57%EV -9.59%E -4.24%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV -3.90%E -1.28%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.14%E -0.924%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -9.99%E -4.44%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -8.62%E -2.97%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -3.14%E -0.924%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.99%E -4.44%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-16 23:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -9.99%E -4.44%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -8.62%E -2.97%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -9.99%E -4.44%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -8.62%E -2.97%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -9.99%E -4.44%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.25%E -3.21%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-16 23:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.19%EV -10.39%E -4.64%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.27%EV -7.05%E -2.39%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -4.57%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-16 23:16 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -11.99%E -5.45%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.25%E -3.21%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-16 23:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -11.99%E -5.45%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.25%E -3.21%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-16 23:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.58% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.69% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.73% | 0.2% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.58% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.69% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.73% | 0.2% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.58% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.69% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.73% | 0.2% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64% | 0.5% | 2026-10-16 23:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.81% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.81% | 1.3% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |