The School of Odds
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Sport Recife v Criciuma

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 00:02 UTC

Final: Sport Recife 2–1 Criciuma

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sport Recife (Local)

Prediction 32.88%3.04fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.680%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.09%32.84%32.82%33.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.792.802.9838.17%35.86%35.71%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Criciuma (Visit)

Prediction 38.83%2.58fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.34%38.91%38.89%41.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.382.382.4846.51%42.00%42.02%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.29%3.53fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -0.864%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%28.25%28.30%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.213.203.4333.33%31.12%31.25%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport Recife (Local): 32.88%; Criciuma (Visit): 38.83%; Draw: 28.29%. For Sport Recife (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.98, with an expected value of -2.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.35%EV -2.03%E -0.680%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.09%EV -9.52%E -4.09%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.57%EV -7.49%E -2.29%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-23 23:59
Pinnacle🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.64%EV -3.01%E -1.02%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.30%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.07%EV -2.96%E -0.864%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-23 23:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.97%EV -5.97%E -2.09%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.29%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -3.81%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 00:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.97%EV -5.97%E -2.09%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.29%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -3.81%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 00:00
BetUS🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -6.30%E -2.21%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.81%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 23:59
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -6.30%E -2.21%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 23:50
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -6.30%E -2.21%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-23 23:49
LeoVegas🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.67%EV -6.30%E -2.21%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.12%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 00:00
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -6.30%E -2.21%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -8.74%E -3.72%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -5.23%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 00:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -6.30%E -2.21%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.95%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-23 23:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -6.30%E -2.21%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -16.51%E -7.68%K -14.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-23 23:40
Bovada🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 32.57%EV -6.96%E -2.46%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.06%EV -8.35%E -3.54%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-23 23:59
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.81%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 23:59
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.75%EV -3.69%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 23:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.75%EV -3.69%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 23:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.75%EV -3.69%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 23:35
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.75%EV -3.69%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 23:35
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.75%EV -3.69%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 23:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.75%EV -3.69%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 23:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.75%EV -3.69%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 23:35
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.75%EV -3.69%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 23:35
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 23:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.89%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.69%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.42%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 19:50
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -10.68%E -4.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -3.81%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 00:00
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-23 23:59
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-23 23:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-23 23:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-23 23:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -8.74%E -3.72%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-23 23:15
Betsson🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -8.74%E -3.72%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-23 23:15
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -8.74%E -3.72%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-23 23:15
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-23 23:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-23 23:45
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -10.68%E -4.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-23 20:10
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -10.68%E -4.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 00:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -9.59%E -3.49%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-23 22:59
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.93%EV -9.59%E -3.49%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.05%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.02%EV -11.73%E -3.76%K -5.53%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-23 23:59
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.93%EV -9.59%E -3.49%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.05%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.02%EV -11.73%E -3.76%K -5.53%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-23 23:38
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.59%E -3.49%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.68%E -4.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-23 20:10
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.59%E -3.49%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.68%E -4.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-23 20:09
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.59%E -3.49%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.68%E -4.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-23 20:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.59%E -3.49%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.68%E -4.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-23 20:10
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -11.23%E -4.16%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-23 23:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -11.23%E -4.16%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-23 23:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.53%EV -12.88%E -4.86%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.34%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.13%EV -13.71%E -4.50%K -6.69%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-23 23:35
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.37%EV -12.88%E -4.86%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.63%EV -8.74%E -3.72%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -13.71%E -4.50%K -6.69%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-23 23:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.27%EV -13.53%E -5.15%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.56%EV -9.52%E -4.09%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -15.13%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-23 23:35
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.94%EV -13.86%E -5.29%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.37%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 23:00
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.51%EV -13.86%E -5.29%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -10.68%E -4.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-24 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.74%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.75%0.8%2026-10-24 00:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.74%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.75%0.8%2026-10-24 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.74%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.75%0.8%2026-10-24 00:00
Matchbook◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.51%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.63%1.2%2026-10-24 00:00
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.64%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.55%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.80%2.1%2026-10-24 00:00