The School of Odds
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Sport Recife v Athletic Club (MG)

Kickoff: 2026-06-09 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sport Recife (Local)

Prediction 52.73%1.90fair odd
EV -7.73%
Edge -4.42%
Kelly -10.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%52.73%52.73%53.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.751.7559.88%57.85%57.14%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)

Prediction 19.20%5.21fair odd
EV -7.83%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.07%19.20%19.20%19.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.684.784.8023.09%21.34%20.94%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.07%3.56fair odd
EV -4.56%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.21%28.07%28.07%28.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.233.203.4033.33%31.01%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport Recife (Local): 52.73%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 19.20%; Draw: 28.07%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -4.56%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -7.73%E -4.42%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -8.79%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.56%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-01 13:49
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -7.73%E -4.42%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -7.83%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-01 23:09
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -7.73%E -4.42%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -7.83%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-01 23:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -7.73%E -4.42%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -7.83%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-01 23:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -7.73%E -4.42%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -7.83%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-01 23:10
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.13%EV -9.84%E -5.75%K -13.86%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -9.75%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-01 13:49
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -10.37%E -6.10%K -14.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -13.59%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-01 13:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.48%EV -11.95%E -7.15%K -17.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.86%EV -16.85%E -3.89%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.66%EV -15.78%E -5.26%K -7.89%G +0.000%16.3%2026-06-01 14:28
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.