The School of Odds
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São Bernardo v Vila Nova

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 19:30 UTC

Final: São Bernardo 3–2 Vila Nova

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

São Bernardo (Local)

Prediction 29.84%3.35fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.739%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.71%29.95%29.86%33.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.653.003.003.2737.74%33.35%33.33%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vila Nova (Visit)

Prediction 40.00%2.50fair odd
EV -0.004%
Edge -0.001%
Kelly -0.002%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.19%39.89%40.02%42.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.342.302.5047.62%42.75%43.48%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.16%3.32fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.42%30.16%30.12%31.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.043.053.2034.48%32.87%32.79%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: São Bernardo (Local): 29.84%; Vila Nova (Visit): 40.00%; Draw: 30.16%. For Vila Nova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.5001. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.5000, with an expected value of -0.004%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 29.45%EV -2.42%E -0.739%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.46%EV -4.80%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.09%EV -3.49%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-24 19:20
BetUS🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 29.45%EV -2.42%E -0.739%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.46%EV -4.80%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.09%EV -3.49%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-24 19:15
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.28%EV -3.01%E -0.927%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.50%EV -6.00%E -2.55%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 19:11
LowVig.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.01%E -0.927%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -7.20%E -3.10%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -8.01%E -2.63%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 19:15
BetOnline.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.01%E -0.927%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -7.20%E -3.10%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -8.01%E -2.63%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 19:11
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.00%E -2.55%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -8.01%E -2.63%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 19:11
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.51%E -2.10%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 19:11
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.23%EV -16.00%E -7.62%K -14.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -11.03%E -3.74%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 19:11
1xBet🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 29.50%EV -5.40%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.14%EV -6.80%E -2.92%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.36%EV -7.11%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 19:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 29.13%EV -5.70%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.38%EV -8.80%E -3.86%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.49%EV -8.92%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 19:11
Bovada🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.54%EV -6.89%E -2.21%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.24%EV -8.40%E -3.67%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.01%E -2.63%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 19:15
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.51%E -2.10%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.51%E -2.10%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 19:11
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -6.00%E -2.55%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 19:29
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.47%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.07%EV -8.80%E -3.86%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.46%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 19:11
NordicBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.47%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.07%EV -8.80%E -3.86%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.46%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 19:15
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.54%E -4.32%K -6.60%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 19:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.54%E -4.32%K -6.60%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 19:15
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.54%E -4.32%K -6.60%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 19:15
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.54%E -4.32%K -6.60%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 19:20
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -10.00%E -4.45%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -12.54%E -4.32%K -6.60%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-24 19:11
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -10.00%E -4.45%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -12.54%E -4.32%K -6.60%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-24 19:15
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.01%EV -8.98%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 39.97%EV -8.40%E -3.67%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.01%EV -8.01%E -2.63%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 19:15
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -4.00%E -1.67%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 19:15
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.51%E -2.10%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 19:15
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -8.80%E -3.86%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 19:11
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -11.97%E -4.06%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -6.00%E -2.55%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -6.51%E -2.10%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 19:15
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -11.97%E -4.06%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -6.51%E -2.10%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 19:05
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.41%EV -13.46%E -4.64%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.19%EV -10.00%E -4.45%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.41%EV -12.54%E -4.32%K -6.60%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-24 19:10
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -14.05%E -4.88%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -10.00%E -4.45%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 19:15
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -14.05%E -4.88%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -10.00%E -4.45%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -14.05%E -4.88%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -10.00%E -4.45%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 19:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.94%EV -14.35%E -5.00%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.46%EV -10.00%E -4.45%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 19:05
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.94%EV -14.35%E -5.00%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.46%EV -10.00%E -4.45%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 19:05
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -14.95%E -5.25%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -14.95%E -5.25%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:15
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -14.95%E -5.25%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:15
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -14.95%E -5.25%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -14.95%E -5.25%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:15
betPARX🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -14.95%E -5.25%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -14.95%E -5.25%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -14.95%E -5.25%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -19.43%E -7.19%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -4.00%E -1.67%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 19:15
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -19.43%E -7.19%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -4.00%E -1.67%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 19:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -19.43%E -7.19%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -4.80%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-24 19:15
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -19.43%E -7.19%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.20%EV -4.80%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.01%EV -11.03%E -3.74%K -5.66%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-24 19:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.05%EV -20.92%E -7.89%K -12.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.27%EV -6.00%E -2.55%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -11.03%E -3.74%K -5.66%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-24 19:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%0.9%2026-10-24 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.48%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.14%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%1.3%2026-10-24 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.48%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.14%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%1.3%2026-10-24 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.48%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.14%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%1.3%2026-10-24 19:25
Smarkets◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.31%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.97%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%3.4%2026-10-24 19:25