The School of Odds
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São Bernardo v Criciuma

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 18:59 UTC

Final: São Bernardo 0–1 Criciuma

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

São Bernardo (Local)

Prediction 24.10%4.15fair odd
EV -0.230%
Edge -0.056%
Kelly -0.073%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.63%24.06%24.19%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.793.754.1429.41%26.37%26.67%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Criciuma (Visit)

Prediction 47.74%2.09fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -3.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.40%47.80%47.66%50.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.941.942.0257.14%51.61%51.55%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.16%3.55fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -0.490%
Kelly -0.687%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.21%28.13%28.15%29.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.233.253.4932.79%30.95%30.77%28.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: São Bernardo (Local): 24.10%; Criciuma (Visit): 47.74%; Draw: 28.16%. For São Bernardo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.14, with an expected value of -0.230%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.14I 24.15%NM 23.21%EV -0.230%E -0.056%K -0.073%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.27%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.53%EV -1.71%E -0.490%K -0.687%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 18:45
SportsBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.84%EV -1.19%E -0.291%K -0.385%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.78%EV -8.34%E -4.35%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -7.06%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-18 18:49
LowVig.ag🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -1.19%E -0.291%K -0.385%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.25%EV -9.30%E -4.89%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:55
BetUS🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -1.19%E -0.291%K -0.385%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.25%EV -9.30%E -4.89%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:54
FanDuel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -1.19%E -0.291%K -0.385%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.06%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 18:49
Tipico (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -1.19%E -0.291%K -0.385%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.67%EV -16.46%E -9.40%K -21.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -9.88%E -3.09%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-18 18:49
1xBet🎯4.08I 24.51%NM 22.91%EV -1.68%E -0.411%K -0.544%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.45%EV -9.77%E -5.17%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.65%EV -4.81%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 18:55
DraftKings🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -3.60%E -0.901%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-18 18:54
Marathon Bet🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 23.13%EV -4.09%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.97%EV -10.25%E -5.45%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -7.06%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 18:54
BetOnline.ag🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -4.81%E -1.22%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.83%EV -7.87%E -4.08%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -2.84%E -0.823%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 18:54
Bovada🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -4.81%E -1.22%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.88%EV -10.25%E -5.45%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -7.06%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 18:50
BetMGM🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -6.01%E -1.54%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.88%E -3.09%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-18 18:53
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -6.01%E -1.54%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.45%EV -10.73%E -5.74%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.31%EV -9.88%E -3.09%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-18 18:49
Coolbet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.32%EV -7.22%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.30%EV -5.48%E -2.77%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -7.06%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-18 18:54
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -7.22%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.69%EV -9.30%E -4.89%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.77%EV -11.29%E -3.58%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-18 18:54
Betway🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.42%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 18:54
theScore Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -8.42%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -7.06%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -8.42%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -12.70%E -4.10%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-18 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -8.42%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -12.70%E -4.10%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-18 18:54
Neds🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -8.42%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -12.70%E -4.10%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-18 18:54
Coral🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -8.42%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -12.70%E -4.10%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-18 18:54
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -8.42%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -10.73%E -5.74%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -9.88%E -3.09%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-18 18:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -9.63%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.29%EV -3.57%E -1.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.47%E -2.61%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -9.63%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.29%EV -3.57%E -1.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.47%E -2.61%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -9.63%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.29%EV -3.57%E -1.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.47%E -2.61%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -9.63%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.29%EV -3.57%E -1.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.47%E -2.61%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:55
betPARX🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -9.63%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.29%EV -3.57%E -1.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.47%E -2.61%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:55
LeoVegas🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -9.63%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.99%EV -5.48%E -2.77%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -7.06%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -9.63%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.79%EV -5.48%E -2.77%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -8.47%E -2.61%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-18 18:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -9.63%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -8.47%E -2.61%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-18 18:54
Betsson🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.88%E -3.09%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-18 18:55
NordicBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.88%E -3.09%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-18 18:54
Codere (IT)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.88%E -3.09%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-18 18:55
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -3.57%E -1.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.88%E -3.09%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 18:49
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -3.57%E -1.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.88%E -3.09%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 18:49
888sport🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -8.47%E -2.61%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -8.47%E -2.61%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 18:54
888sport (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -8.47%E -2.61%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 18:54
William Hill🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -8.47%E -2.61%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 18:55
betfred_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -13.24%E -3.68%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -9.88%E -3.09%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 18:54
BetRivers🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -14.45%E -4.07%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.49%EV -4.52%E -2.26%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -11.29%E -3.58%K -5.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 18:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -14.45%E -4.07%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.03%EV -7.39%E -3.81%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -12.70%E -4.10%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-18 18:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.10%EV -14.45%E -4.07%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.16%EV -7.87%E -4.08%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -12.70%E -4.10%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-18 18:54
Grosvenor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -15.65%E -4.47%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.70%E -4.10%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-18 18:49
TABtouch🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.52%EV -16.86%E -4.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.62%EV -7.87%E -4.08%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.87%EV -14.10%E -4.62%K -6.88%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-18 18:49
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.34%EV -16.86%E -4.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.01%EV -9.30%E -4.89%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -14.10%E -4.62%K -6.88%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-18 18:55
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -18.06%E -5.31%K -7.53%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -12.70%E -4.10%K -6.05%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-18 18:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.16%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.36%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.49%0.3%2026-10-18 18:55
Matchbook◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.05%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.35%0.8%2026-10-18 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.05%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.35%0.8%2026-10-18 18:55
Smarkets◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-10-18 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-10-18 18:55