Language:English
Ponte Preta v Juventude
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ponte Preta (Local)
Prediction 10.50%9.52fair odd
EV +10.25%
Edge +0.976%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.111%
assuming max odds 10.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.90%10.46%10.51%12.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.648.5010.5013.33%11.58%11.76%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Juventude (Visit)
Prediction 70.10%1.43fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -3.43%
Kelly -12.96%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.93%70.10%70.13%72.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.321.311.3680.00%76.00%76.34%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.40%5.15fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -0.600%
Kelly -0.750%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.44%19.44%19.36%20.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.664.705.0023.53%21.44%21.28%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ponte Preta (Local): 10.50%; Juventude (Visit): 70.10%; Draw: 19.40%. For Ponte Preta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.52. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.90%EV +10.25%E +0.976%K +1.08%G +0.111% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.42%EV -9.57%E -7.42%K -33.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -3.00%E -0.600%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 07:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +5.00%E +0.500%K +0.556%G +0.028% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.93%EV -7.47%E -5.66%K -23.34%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -7.85%E -1.65%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-04 00:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV +5.00%E +0.500%K +0.556%G +0.028% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.25%EV -10.27%E -8.03%K -36.69%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -3.00%E -0.600%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-04 03:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -0.249%E -0.026%K -0.029%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.98%EV -8.17%E -6.24%K -26.35%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -12.70%E -2.82%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-04 00:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -0.249%E -0.026%K -0.029%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.79%EV -10.97%E -8.64%K -40.64%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.61%EV -4.94%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-05 00:43 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.43%EV -0.249%E -0.026%K -0.029%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.70%EV -12.38%E -9.90%K -49.50%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.87%EV -7.85%E -1.65%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-04 00:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 9.21I 10.86%NM 10.23%EV -3.29%E -0.358%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.87%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 18.89%EV -3.19%E -0.640%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 02:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV -5.50%E -0.611%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.05%EV -8.17%E -6.24%K -26.35%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -3.00%E -0.600%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-04 08:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.30%EV -5.50%E -0.611%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.78%EV -8.17%E -6.24%K -26.35%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.92%EV -4.94%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-04 17:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.50%E -0.611%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.59%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -10.76%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 11:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.50%E -0.611%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.59%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -10.76%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 11:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.50%E -0.611%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.59%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -10.76%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 11:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.50%E -0.611%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.59%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -10.76%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 11:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -5.50%E -0.611%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.52%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -7.85%E -1.65%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-04 08:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -5.50%E -0.611%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.57%E -7.42%K -33.00%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -12.70%E -2.82%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-04 00:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.01%EV -5.50%E -0.611%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.29%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.71%EV -15.61%E -3.59%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-05 09:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.41%EV -7.60%E -0.864%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.49%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.09%EV -6.88%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-04 08:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.41%EV -7.60%E -0.864%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.49%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.09%EV -6.88%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-04 08:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.54%EV -8.12%E -0.928%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.43%EV -8.17%E -6.24%K -26.35%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.02%EV -5.91%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-04 15:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.65I 11.56%NM 10.70%EV -9.17%E -1.06%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.60%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -8.82%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 10:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.70%EV -9.70%E -1.13%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -7.47%E -5.66%K -23.34%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -8.82%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-03 20:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -10.75%E -1.26%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.00%E -0.600%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 06:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -10.75%E -1.26%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -4.66%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -10.76%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -10.75%E -1.26%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -4.66%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -10.76%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -10.75%E -1.26%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -4.66%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -10.76%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -10.75%E -1.26%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -4.66%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -10.76%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -10.75%E -1.26%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -4.66%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -10.76%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -10.75%E -1.26%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -4.66%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -10.76%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -10.75%E -1.26%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -4.66%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -10.76%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -10.75%E -1.26%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.36%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -12.70%E -2.82%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-04 17:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -10.75%E -1.26%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.36%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -12.70%E -2.82%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-04 17:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -10.75%E -1.26%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.36%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -12.70%E -2.82%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-04 02:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 8.40I 11.90%NM 10.87%EV -11.80%E -1.40%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.70%EV -8.17%E -6.24%K -26.35%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.43%EV -8.82%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-04 05:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 8.40I 11.90%NM 10.87%EV -11.80%E -1.40%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.70%EV -8.17%E -6.24%K -26.35%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.43%EV -8.82%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-04 05:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 8.40I 11.90%NM 10.87%EV -11.80%E -1.40%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.70%EV -8.17%E -6.24%K -26.35%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.43%EV -8.82%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-04 05:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.18%EV -13.37%E -1.62%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.38%EV -8.17%E -6.24%K -26.35%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -3.00%E -0.600%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-05 10:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 8.20I 12.20%NM 10.99%EV -13.90%E -1.70%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.84%EV -9.57%E -7.42%K -33.00%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.17%EV -8.82%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-04 08:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -16.00%E -2.00%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -14.64%E -3.33%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -16.00%E -2.00%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.94%EV -7.47%E -5.66%K -23.34%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.85%EV -16.58%E -3.86%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -16.00%E -2.00%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.94%EV -7.47%E -5.66%K -23.34%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.85%EV -16.58%E -3.86%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -16.00%E -2.00%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.94%EV -7.47%E -5.66%K -23.34%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.85%EV -16.58%E -3.86%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 09:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -16.00%E -2.00%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.94%EV -7.47%E -5.66%K -23.34%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.85%EV -16.58%E -3.86%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 09:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.07%EV -16.00%E -2.00%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.83%EV -17.55%E -4.13%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-10-05 09:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -21.25%E -2.83%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -6.88%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 10:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -21.25%E -2.83%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -6.88%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 10:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -21.25%E -2.83%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -6.88%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 10:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -21.25%E -2.83%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -6.88%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 10:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.85% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.08% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.08% | 2.8% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.85% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.08% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.08% | 2.8% | 2026-10-05 13:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.85% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.08% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.08% | 2.8% | 2026-10-05 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.85% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.08% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.08% | 2.8% | 2026-10-05 13:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.18% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.92% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.90% | 3.8% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |