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Ponte Preta v Atletico Goianiense
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ponte Preta (Local)
Prediction 8.99%11.12fair odd
EV +16.90%
Edge +1.30%
Kelly +1.41%
Growth +0.238%
assuming max odds 13.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.22%8.84%9.04%10.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.1410.0013.0011.76%9.86%10.00%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Atletico Goianiense (Visit)
Prediction 74.12%1.35fair odd
EV -5.12%
Edge -4.00%
Kelly -18.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.16%74.26%74.04%76.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.251.251.2885.47%80.23%80.00%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.88%5.92fair odd
EV -0.384%
Edge -0.065%
Kelly -0.078%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.90%16.91%16.92%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.335.305.9020.41%18.75%18.87%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ponte Preta (Local): 8.99%; Atletico Goianiense (Visit): 74.12%; Draw: 16.88%. For Ponte Preta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.12. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.90%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV +16.90%E +1.30%K +1.41%G +0.238% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.89%EV -9.57%E -7.84%K -43.49%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.90%EV -0.384%E -0.065%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-16 21:38 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV +16.90%E +1.30%K +1.41%G +0.238% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.89%EV -9.57%E -7.84%K -43.49%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.90%EV -0.384%E -0.065%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-16 21:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 12.17I 8.22%NM 7.85%EV +9.43%E +0.775%K +0.845%G +0.080% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.86%EV -6.60%E -5.24%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 5.87I 17.04%NM 16.28%EV -0.891%E -0.152%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-16 21:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 12.16I 8.22%NM 7.86%EV +9.34%E +0.768%K +0.837%G +0.078% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.84%EV -6.60%E -5.24%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 5.86I 17.06%NM 16.31%EV -1.06%E -0.181%K -0.218%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-16 22:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV +7.91%E +0.659%K +0.719%G +0.057% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.86%EV -11.05%E -9.21%K -55.26%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.14%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-16 21:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.44%EV +7.91%E +0.659%K +0.719%G +0.057% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.32%EV -13.28%E -11.35%K -78.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.24%EV -7.14%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-16 21:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 11.30I 8.85%NM 8.24%EV +1.61%E +0.143%K +0.156%G +0.003% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.89%EV -6.60%E -5.24%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 5.21I 19.19%NM 17.87%EV -12.03%E -2.31%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-16 22:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV -1.09%E -0.099%K -0.109%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.98%EV -6.60%E -5.24%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -2.92%E -0.507%K -0.614%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-16 21:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -1.09%E -0.099%K -0.109%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -7.14%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-16 22:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -1.09%E -0.099%K -0.109%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.13%EV -8.09%E -6.52%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -11.36%E -2.16%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-16 22:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -5.58%E -0.532%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.28%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -7.14%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-16 21:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV -5.58%E -0.532%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.32%EV -8.09%E -6.52%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 16.91%EV -7.98%E -1.46%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-16 21:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 10.25I 9.76%NM 8.98%EV -7.83%E -0.764%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.65%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.37%EV -10.51%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-16 21:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.02%EV -5.12%E -4.00%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -10.51%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-16 21:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.02%EV -5.12%E -4.00%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -10.51%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-16 21:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.02%EV -5.12%E -4.00%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -10.51%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-16 21:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.02%EV -5.12%E -4.00%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -10.51%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-16 21:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.02%EV -5.12%E -4.00%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -10.51%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-16 21:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.02%EV -5.12%E -4.00%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -10.51%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-16 21:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.02%EV -5.12%E -4.00%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -10.51%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-16 21:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.92%E -0.507%K -0.614%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-16 21:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.17%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.56%EV -5.45%E -0.973%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-16 21:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.17%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.56%EV -5.45%E -0.973%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-16 21:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.17%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.56%EV -5.45%E -0.973%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-16 22:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.16%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.88%EV -8.09%E -6.52%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.96%EV -8.83%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-16 21:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.52%EV -8.09%E -6.52%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV -11.36%E -2.16%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-16 20:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -15.58%E -3.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-16 18:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -15.58%E -3.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-16 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -15.58%E -3.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-16 18:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -15.58%E -3.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-16 17:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -15.58%E -3.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-16 21:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.01%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.83%EV -9.57%E -7.84%K -43.49%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.16%EV -11.36%E -2.16%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-16 22:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.01%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.83%EV -9.57%E -7.84%K -43.49%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.16%EV -11.36%E -2.16%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-16 22:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -10.08%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -9.57%E -7.84%K -43.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -15.58%E -3.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-16 22:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.40%EV -12.78%E -1.32%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.55%EV -8.09%E -6.52%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.05%EV -9.67%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-16 21:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.40%EV -12.78%E -1.32%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.55%EV -8.09%E -6.52%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.05%EV -9.67%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-16 21:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -14.58%E -1.53%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.28%EV -5.86%E -4.62%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -7.14%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-16 21:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -14.58%E -1.53%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.48%EV -6.60%E -5.24%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.91%EV -13.89%E -2.72%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-16 21:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -14.58%E -1.53%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -9.57%E -7.84%K -43.49%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -7.14%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-16 21:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -19.07%E -2.12%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.16%EV -8.09%E -6.52%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.90%EV -15.58%E -3.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-16 21:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -19.07%E -2.12%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.16%EV -8.09%E -6.52%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.90%EV -15.58%E -3.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-16 21:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -19.07%E -2.12%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.16%EV -8.09%E -6.52%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.90%EV -15.58%E -3.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-16 21:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.88%EV -19.07%E -2.12%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.32%EV -8.83%E -7.18%K -38.38%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -15.58%E -3.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-10-16 21:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.79%EV -19.07%E -2.12%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.23%EV -9.57%E -7.84%K -43.49%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.98%EV -17.27%E -3.52%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-10-16 21:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -23.57%E -2.77%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.19%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -11.36%E -2.16%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-16 21:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -23.57%E -2.77%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.19%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -11.36%E -2.16%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-16 21:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -23.57%E -2.77%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.19%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -11.36%E -2.16%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-16 21:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -23.57%E -2.77%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.19%EV -7.35%E -5.88%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -11.36%E -2.16%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-16 21:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.64% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.80% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.56% | 0.4% | 2026-10-16 21:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.64% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.80% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.56% | 0.4% | 2026-10-16 21:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.64% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.80% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.56% | 0.4% | 2026-10-16 21:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.64% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.80% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.56% | 0.4% | 2026-10-16 21:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 14.49I 6.90%NM 6.82% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.23% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.94% | 1.2% | 2026-10-16 22:25 |