The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Operario PR v Sport Recife

2026-11-06 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Operario PR (Local)

Prediction 39.41%2.54fair odd
EV -5.01%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -3.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.49%39.46%39.49%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.352.4145.45%42.80%42.55%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sport Recife (Visit)

Prediction 32.25%3.10fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.54%32.34%32.12%33.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.842.852.9836.36%35.20%35.09%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.34%3.53fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%28.20%28.38%29.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.263.253.4031.75%30.66%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Operario PR (Local): 39.41%; Sport Recife (Visit): 32.25%; Draw: 28.34%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.40, with an expected value of -3.64%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.39%EV -5.01%E -2.08%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.85%EV -3.91%E -1.31%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.76%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 23:00
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.94%EV -6.20%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 32.98%EV -9.39%E -3.34%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-01 22:20
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -6.20%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -11.33%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 22:45
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -6.20%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -11.33%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 22:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -6.20%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -11.33%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 22:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -6.20%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -11.33%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 22:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.05%EV -6.98%E -2.96%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.03%EV -10.04%E -3.60%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 22:15
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV -7.38%E -3.14%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -4.88%E -1.65%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 21:45
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.25%EV -7.38%E -3.14%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.37%EV -8.10%E -2.84%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 22:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.21%EV -7.38%E -3.14%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.99%EV -7.13%E -2.48%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 21:50
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.42%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -6.49%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04%EV -10.73%E -3.40%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-01 21:50
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.42%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -6.49%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04%EV -10.73%E -3.40%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-01 21:50
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -9.35%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.49%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 21:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -9.35%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -6.49%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 22:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.35%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-01 22:45
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -9.35%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -7.13%E -2.48%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 22:30
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -9.35%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -8.10%E -2.84%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 21:50
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -13.29%E -6.04%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -11.33%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-01 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 39.17%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.92%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.92%16.0%2026-11-01 21:50