Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Operario PR v Clube de Regatas Brasil

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 23:30 UTC

Final: Operario PR 3–0 Clube de Regatas Brasil

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Operario PR (Local)

Prediction 39.94%2.50fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.35%39.85%39.97%40.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.302.302.4145.45%43.46%43.48%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Clube de Regatas Brasil (Visit)

Prediction 31.60%3.16fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.655%
Kelly -0.967%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.04%31.55%31.64%32.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.882.883.1037.04%34.71%34.72%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.46%3.51fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -0.954%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.39%28.60%28.39%31.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.223.203.4035.09%31.10%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Operario PR (Local): 39.94%; Clube de Regatas Brasil (Visit): 31.60%; Draw: 28.46%. For Clube de Regatas Brasil (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -2.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.95%EV -3.75%E -1.56%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.06%EV -2.03%E -0.655%K -0.967%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.00%EV -5.52%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-09 15:26
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.89%EV -5.74%E -2.43%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.59%EV -5.82%E -1.95%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 00:44
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.89%EV -5.74%E -2.43%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.59%EV -5.82%E -1.95%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 23:45
BetUS🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.89%EV -5.74%E -2.43%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.59%EV -5.82%E -1.95%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 23:44
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -6.77%E -2.29%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -3.24%E -0.954%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 04:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -5.19%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -8.93%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 23:35
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.18%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -8.93%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 15:20
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -8.98%E -3.12%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-07 21:00
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -8.98%E -3.12%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-07 20:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -8.98%E -3.12%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-07 21:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -8.98%E -3.12%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-07 20:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -8.98%E -3.12%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-07 20:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -8.98%E -3.12%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-07 20:59
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -8.98%E -3.12%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-07 20:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.35%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.19%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -18.89%E -6.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 11:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.80%EV -6.94%E -2.98%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.22%EV -6.14%E -2.07%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -8.93%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 15:16
Bovada🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.64%EV -7.34%E -3.16%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -6.77%E -2.29%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -10.36%E -3.29%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 14:59
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.45%EV -7.34%E -3.16%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -6.77%E -2.29%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.78%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 18:45
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.45%EV -7.34%E -3.16%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -6.77%E -2.29%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.78%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 18:44
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -7.34%E -3.16%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.45%EV -11.51%E -4.11%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -8.93%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 20:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 39.74%EV -7.74%E -3.35%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.12%EV -6.77%E -2.29%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -10.36%E -3.29%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 11:35
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -6.77%E -2.29%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -4.67%E -1.39%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 19:59
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.35%E -2.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -3.24%E -0.954%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 20:00
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -6.77%E -2.29%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-08 23:34
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.35%E -2.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-09 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.35%E -2.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 19:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -9.93%E -3.48%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 19:59
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -6.77%E -2.29%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.36%E -3.29%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 23:35
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.35%E -2.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.78%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 22:20
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.35%E -2.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.78%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 22:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.35%E -2.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.78%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 22:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.35%E -2.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.78%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 22:15
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.17%EV -8.94%E -3.92%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.48%EV -13.09%E -4.76%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -10.36%E -3.29%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-07 21:00
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.35%E -2.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-08 19:59
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -8.98%E -3.12%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 20:00
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.93%E -3.48%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -7.51%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 12:35
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -9.93%E -3.48%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -8.93%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 15:45
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -11.51%E -4.11%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -7.51%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-08 19:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -11.51%E -4.11%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.93%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 12:36
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -11.51%E -4.11%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.93%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 12:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -11.51%E -4.11%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.93%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 12:35
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -11.51%E -4.11%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.93%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 12:34
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -11.51%E -4.11%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.93%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 15:25
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -11.51%E -4.11%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.93%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 15:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.49%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -13.09%E -4.76%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.21%EV -10.36%E -3.29%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-07 20:59
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -13.09%E -4.76%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -11.78%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-08 06:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.29%EV -10.94%E -4.90%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.45%EV -14.67%E -5.43%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.26%EV -11.78%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-07 21:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.29%EV -10.94%E -4.90%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.45%EV -14.67%E -5.43%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.26%EV -11.78%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-07 21:00
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.85%EV -12.13%E -5.52%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.88%EV -13.09%E -4.76%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -11.78%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-08 23:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.48I 40.32%NM 39.76%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.43%1.4%2026-09-09 16:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.76%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.43%1.4%2026-09-09 17:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.76%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.43%1.4%2026-09-09 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.76%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.43%1.4%2026-09-09 17:30
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 39.56%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.15%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.29%1.9%2026-09-09 16:00