The School of Odds
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Operario PR v Atletico Goianiense

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Operario PR (Local)

Prediction 42.60%2.35fair odd
EV -6.28%
Edge -2.85%
Kelly -5.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.29%42.60%42.60%42.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.172.202.2047.17%46.01%45.45%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Goianiense (Visit)

Prediction 27.17%3.68fair odd
EV -6.28%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.16%27.17%27.17%27.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.403.453.4530.30%29.41%28.99%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.23%3.31fair odd
EV -6.28%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -2.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.23%30.23%30.23%30.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.053.103.1033.90%32.79%32.26%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Operario PR (Local): 42.60%; Atletico Goianiense (Visit): 27.17%; Draw: 30.23%. For Atletico Goianiense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.45, with an expected value of -6.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.28%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -6.28%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 12:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.28%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -6.28%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 12:15
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.28%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -6.28%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 12:15
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.28%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -6.28%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 12:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.28%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -6.28%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 12:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.28%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -6.28%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 12:14
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.28%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -6.28%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 12:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.28%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -6.28%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 12:14
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.56%EV -7.56%E -3.48%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.64%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -7.79%E -2.55%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 12:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.29%EV -7.98%E -3.70%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.27%EV -8.99%E -2.68%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.30%E -3.10%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 12:14
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.51%EV -8.83%E -4.13%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -8.99%E -2.68%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -9.30%E -3.10%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-07 12:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.35%EV -9.69%E -4.57%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -10.35%E -3.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.44%EV -10.81%E -3.67%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-07 12:14
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.35%EV -9.69%E -4.57%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -10.35%E -3.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.44%EV -10.81%E -3.67%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-07 12:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.35%EV -9.69%E -4.57%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -10.35%E -3.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.44%EV -10.81%E -3.67%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-07 12:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.