The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Operario PR v Athletic Club (MG)

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 22:31 UTC

Final: Operario PR 1–0 Athletic Club (MG)

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Operario PR (Local)

Prediction 43.98%2.27fair odd
EV -5.00%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -4.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.44%44.49%43.94%49.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.812.032.102.1655.25%49.21%47.62%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)

Prediction 26.62%3.76fair odd
EV +6.46%
Edge +1.62%
Kelly +2.15%
Growth +0.139%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.53%26.40%26.70%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.573.504.0031.25%27.98%28.57%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.40%3.40fair odd
EV +1.44%
Edge +0.418%
Kelly +0.589%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.18%29.11%29.37%30.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.153.4533.33%31.60%31.75%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Operario PR (Local): 43.98%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 26.62%; Draw: 29.40%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -15.12%E -7.83%K -16.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV +6.46%E +1.62%K +2.15%G +0.139%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 22:30
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -15.12%E -7.83%K -16.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV +6.46%E +1.62%K +2.15%G +0.139%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 22:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -15.12%E -7.83%K -16.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV +6.46%E +1.62%K +2.15%G +0.139%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 22:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -15.12%E -7.83%K -16.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV +6.46%E +1.62%K +2.15%G +0.139%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 22:29
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -15.12%E -7.83%K -16.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV +6.46%E +1.62%K +2.15%G +0.139%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 22:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -15.12%E -7.83%K -16.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV +6.46%E +1.62%K +2.15%G +0.139%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 22:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -15.12%E -7.83%K -16.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV +6.46%E +1.62%K +2.15%G +0.139%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 22:29
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%EV -16.00%E -8.38%K -17.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV +5.13%E +1.30%K +1.74%G +0.089%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV +1.44%E +0.418%K +0.589%G +0.008%6.7%2026-10-23 22:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -18.64%E -10.07%K -21.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -0.191%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 22:30
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -18.64%E -10.07%K -21.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -0.191%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 22:29
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -19.52%E -10.66%K -23.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -0.191%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-23 22:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -19.52%E -10.66%K -23.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -0.191%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-23 22:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.45%EV -20.39%E -11.27%K -25.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.70%EV -1.52%E -0.411%K -0.563%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.84%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-23 22:30
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.50%EV -5.00%E -2.32%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.19%EV -2.32%E -0.632%K -0.869%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.31%EV -3.56%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-23 22:25
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.18%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-23 22:30
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.18%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-23 22:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.53%EV -17.76%E -9.50%K -20.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -4.18%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-23 22:25
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -5.51%E -1.55%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 22:05
1xBet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.28%EV -5.00%E -2.32%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.56%EV -6.31%E -1.79%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 22:25
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.84%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-23 22:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -5.88%E -2.75%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.84%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 22:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -5.88%E -2.75%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.84%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 22:05
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.84%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.44%E -1.37%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 22:00
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -12.04%E -6.02%K -12.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.84%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-23 22:29
Bovada🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -8.52%E -4.10%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -6.84%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-23 22:15
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.84%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-23 22:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.84%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-23 22:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.84%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-23 22:00
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.84%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-23 22:00
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -12.04%E -6.02%K -12.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -6.84%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-23 22:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -12.04%E -6.02%K -12.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -6.84%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-23 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-23 22:05
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.13%EV -6.76%E -3.19%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.89%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -10.32%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 22:05
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.13%EV -6.76%E -3.19%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.89%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -10.32%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 22:05
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-23 22:05
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -12.04%E -6.02%K -12.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-23 22:00
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -10.84%E -3.23%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-23 22:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.05%EV -6.32%E -2.97%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -10.84%E -3.23%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-23 22:10
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -12.04%E -6.02%K -12.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -12.17%E -3.69%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-23 22:30
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -13.50%E -4.15%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-23 22:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -14.83%E -4.63%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-23 22:05
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -14.83%E -4.63%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-23 22:00
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -14.83%E -4.63%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-23 22:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -14.83%E -4.63%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-23 22:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.85%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.29%0.4%2026-10-23 22:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.08%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-10-23 22:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.08%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-10-23 22:30
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.15%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.27%2.0%2026-10-23 22:30
Matchbook◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.15%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.27%2.0%2026-10-23 22:30