Language:English
Nautico PE v Vila Nova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nautico PE (Local)
Prediction 34.27%2.92fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.28%34.35%34.33%35.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.642.622.8140.82%37.86%38.17%35.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vila Nova (Visit)
Prediction 36.09%2.77fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.74%36.10%36.14%38.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.562.552.6742.55%39.11%39.22%37.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.64%3.37fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -0.843%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.19%29.55%29.53%31.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.093.103.2834.48%32.39%32.26%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nautico PE (Local): 34.27%; Vila Nova (Visit): 36.09%; Draw: 29.64%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.28, with an expected value of -2.76%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.28%EV -3.71%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.55%EV -5.08%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 20:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.06%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.96%EV -5.44%E -2.08%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-11 20:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.06%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.96%EV -5.44%E -2.08%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-11 20:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.54%EV -4.40%E -1.58%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.09%EV -3.64%E -1.36%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.38%EV -2.76%E -0.843%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-11 20:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.97%E -3.13%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 20:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.97%E -3.13%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-11 19:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 33.60%EV -6.11%E -2.23%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -7.97%E -3.13%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.29%EV -9.88%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-11 17:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.66%EV -6.80%E -2.50%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.33%EV -9.05%E -3.59%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.02%EV -9.58%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.66%EV -6.80%E -2.50%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.33%EV -9.05%E -3.59%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.02%EV -9.58%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -7.48%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -4.36%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 19:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -7.48%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -4.36%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 19:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -7.48%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -3.65%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 19:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -7.48%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -7.97%E -3.13%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -9.58%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -7.48%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.39%EV -15.19%E -6.46%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-11 20:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.41%EV -8.17%E -3.05%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.03%EV -7.61%E -2.97%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.56%EV -7.51%E -2.41%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-11 19:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -9.20%E -3.47%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -4.36%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 20:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -9.20%E -3.47%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-11 17:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -9.20%E -3.47%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -7.97%E -3.13%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-11 20:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.39%EV -9.88%E -3.76%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.47%EV -7.97%E -3.13%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.15%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-11 20:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -10.23%E -3.90%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-11 19:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -10.23%E -3.90%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-11 19:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -10.23%E -3.90%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-11 20:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -10.23%E -3.90%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-11 20:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -10.23%E -3.90%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-11 20:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.39%EV -10.23%E -3.90%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.45%EV -13.38%E -5.58%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -14.03%E -4.84%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-10-11 17:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -4.36%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 19:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -4.36%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 19:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -4.36%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 19:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -4.36%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 19:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -4.36%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 19:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -4.36%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 19:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -4.36%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 19:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-11 20:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-11 20:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-11 20:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-11 20:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-11 20:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -11.58%E -4.73%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-11 17:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -11.58%E -4.73%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-11 17:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -11.58%E -4.73%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-11 17:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -10.91%E -4.20%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -11.58%E -4.73%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-11 17:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -12.62%E -4.95%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-11 19:43 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.71%EV -14.34%E -5.73%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.01%EV -7.97%E -3.13%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.27%EV -9.58%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-11 19:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.71%EV -14.34%E -5.73%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.01%EV -7.97%E -3.13%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.27%EV -9.58%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-11 19:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.71%EV -14.34%E -5.73%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.01%EV -7.97%E -3.13%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.27%EV -9.58%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-11 19:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 35.72%EV -15.02%E -6.06%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.74%EV -7.97%E -3.13%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-11 19:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -16.05%E -6.55%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.04%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-10-11 19:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.20% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.7% | 2026-10-11 20:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.20% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.7% | 2026-10-11 20:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.20% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.7% | 2026-10-11 20:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.20% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.7% | 2026-10-11 20:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.70% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.44% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.86% | 1.5% | 2026-10-11 20:00 |