Language:English
Nautico PE v Sport Recife
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nautico PE (Local)
Prediction 40.42%2.47fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -3.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.81%40.47%40.45%41.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.272.282.3745.45%44.02%43.86%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sport Recife (Visit)
Prediction 30.94%3.23fair odd
EV -0.995%
Edge -0.311%
Kelly -0.452%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.68%30.83%30.89%32.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.972.953.2035.71%33.70%33.90%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.64%3.49fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -0.949%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.88%28.70%28.65%30.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.083.213.203.3832.47%31.15%31.25%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nautico PE (Local): 40.42%; Sport Recife (Visit): 30.94%; Draw: 28.64%. For Sport Recife (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -0.995%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.64%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.87%EV -3.47%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.49%EV -3.21%E -0.949%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV -5.00%E -2.13%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -8.73%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-26 19:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.14%EV -5.81%E -2.49%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 29.50%EV -1.92%E -0.607%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.36%EV -11.80%E -3.83%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-26 19:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -6.22%E -2.68%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.73%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -6.22%E -2.68%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.73%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -6.22%E -2.68%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.73%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -6.22%E -2.68%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.73%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -6.22%E -2.68%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.73%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-26 19:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -6.22%E -2.68%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.73%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -6.22%E -2.68%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.73%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -7.02%E -3.05%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -2.54%E -0.807%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-26 19:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -7.02%E -3.05%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -2.54%E -0.807%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-26 19:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -7.02%E -3.05%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-26 19:31 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -7.02%E -3.05%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-26 19:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.02%E -3.05%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-26 19:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -7.02%E -3.05%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.28%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-26 19:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -7.02%E -3.05%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.28%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-26 19:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -7.02%E -3.05%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.28%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-26 19:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -7.02%E -3.05%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.28%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-26 19:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -7.02%E -3.05%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.28%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-26 19:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 39.97%EV -7.43%E -3.24%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-26 19:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -7.83%E -3.44%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -2.54%E -0.807%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-26 19:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -7.83%E -3.44%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -2.54%E -0.807%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-26 19:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.27%EV -7.83%E -3.44%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-26 19:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.27%EV -7.83%E -3.44%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-26 19:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.98%EV -7.83%E -3.44%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.98%EV -11.82%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.04%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-26 11:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 40.58%EV -8.24%E -3.63%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 30.81%EV -7.49%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.61%EV -7.79%E -2.42%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-26 19:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 40.52%EV -8.24%E -3.63%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -8.73%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-26 19:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -4.07%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-26 16:23 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-26 19:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.28%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -9.79%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-26 19:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -13.37%E -4.78%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -13.37%E -4.78%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -13.37%E -4.78%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -13.37%E -4.78%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-26 19:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.93%EV -9.85%E -4.42%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.80%EV -13.37%E -4.78%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -9.79%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.93%EV -9.85%E -4.42%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.80%EV -13.37%E -4.78%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -9.79%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-26 19:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -11.07%E -5.03%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -0.995%E -0.311%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-26 19:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -11.07%E -5.03%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-26 16:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -11.07%E -5.03%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-26 19:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -11.07%E -5.03%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-26 19:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -11.07%E -5.03%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-26 19:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -11.07%E -5.03%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-26 19:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -11.07%E -5.03%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.28%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-26 19:23 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -11.07%E -5.03%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.28%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-26 19:23 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.07%EV -11.07%E -5.03%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.49%EV -13.37%E -4.78%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.44%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-26 19:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.30% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.91% | 1.7% | 2026-09-26 19:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.30% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.91% | 1.7% | 2026-09-26 19:31 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.30% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.91% | 1.7% | 2026-09-26 19:31 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.75% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.31% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95% | 3.1% | 2026-09-26 19:31 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.32% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.32% | 3.3% | 2026-09-26 19:31 |