Language:English
Nautico PE v Grêmio Novorizontino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nautico PE (Local)
Prediction 31.14%3.21fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.608%
Kelly -0.890%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.55%31.16%31.19%33.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.892.903.1538.02%34.57%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)
Prediction 41.06%2.44fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.609%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.66%40.93%41.08%42.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.262.252.4046.51%44.28%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.80%3.60fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.767%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.58%27.91%27.73%30.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.293.253.5034.48%30.36%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nautico PE (Local): 31.14%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit): 41.06%; Draw: 27.80%. For Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -1.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -1.91%E -0.608%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 13:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -1.91%E -0.608%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 13:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -1.91%E -0.608%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 13:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.97%EV -4.72%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.49%EV -3.93%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.54%EV -7.69%E -2.32%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-05 06:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -5.03%E -1.65%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-05 07:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -5.03%E -1.65%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.70%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 06:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -5.03%E -1.65%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.70%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 06:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 11:53 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 11:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-05 06:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -8.14%E -2.76%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -2.69%E -0.767%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 09:43 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -8.14%E -2.76%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -2.69%E -0.767%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 09:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -8.14%E -2.76%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-05 05:23 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -8.14%E -2.76%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.13%EV -5.98%E -2.61%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-05 06:28 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.55%EV -8.14%E -2.76%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 41.72%EV -11.32%E -5.24%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-05 06:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.04%EV -8.14%E -2.76%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.39%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.56%EV -19.37%E -6.68%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.61%EV -8.76%E -2.99%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 40.98%EV -7.21%E -3.19%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.40%EV -6.02%E -1.78%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 10:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 31.65%EV -9.39%E -3.23%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.11%EV -8.03%E -3.59%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.24%EV -6.02%E -1.78%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 06:23 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -9.70%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -2.69%E -0.767%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 09:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -9.70%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 06:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.70%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-05 09:43 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.70%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-05 09:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -9.70%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-05 06:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -9.70%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -11.73%E -5.45%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-05 09:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -9.70%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-05 07:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -9.70%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-05 07:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -10.32%E -3.58%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-05 09:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -10.32%E -3.58%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -11.73%E -5.45%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -10.32%E -3.58%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -11.73%E -5.45%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.08%EV -10.63%E -3.70%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -11.73%E -5.45%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.44%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.08%EV -10.63%E -3.70%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -11.73%E -5.45%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.44%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-05 06:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -11.26%E -3.95%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-05 14:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -12.81%E -4.58%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -1.46%E -0.609%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -12.81%E -4.58%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -1.46%E -0.609%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -12.81%E -4.58%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -1.46%E -0.609%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -12.81%E -4.58%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -1.46%E -0.609%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -12.81%E -4.58%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -1.46%E -0.609%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -12.81%E -4.58%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -1.46%E -0.609%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -12.81%E -4.58%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -1.46%E -0.609%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -12.81%E -4.58%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 09:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.49%EV -12.81%E -4.58%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.07%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.44%EV -13.81%E -4.45%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-05 06:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -15.93%E -5.90%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.70%EV -17.48%E -6.60%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.70%EV -17.48%E -6.60%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.70%EV -17.48%E -6.60%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.55%EV -17.48%E -6.60%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.66%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.61%EV -18.11%E -6.88%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 38.77%EV -6.39%E -2.80%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.62%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.56% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.87% | 5.5% | 2026-10-05 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.56% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.87% | 5.5% | 2026-10-05 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03% | 6.5% | 2026-10-05 15:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.19% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 15:16 |