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Nautico PE v Criciuma

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nautico PE (Local)

Prediction 46.84%2.13fair odd
EV -5.38%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -5.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.59%46.84%46.84%46.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.931.982.012.0251.81%50.40%49.75%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Criciuma (Visit)

Prediction 24.33%4.11fair odd
EV -6.32%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.12%24.33%24.33%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.803.853.8527.03%26.32%25.97%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.83%3.47fair odd
EV -6.32%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.83%28.83%28.83%29.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.203.253.2532.26%31.28%30.77%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nautico PE (Local): 46.84%; Criciuma (Visit): 24.33%; Draw: 28.83%. For Nautico PE (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.02, with an expected value of -5.38%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.38%E -2.66%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.38%E -2.66%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.38%E -2.66%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.38%E -2.66%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.38%E -2.66%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.38%E -2.66%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.38%E -2.66%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -6.32%E -3.16%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-06 06:30
Grosvenor🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.77%EV -8.19%E -4.18%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -7.53%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -9.20%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-06 06:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.75%EV -8.66%E -4.44%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.31%EV -8.75%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -9.20%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-06 06:30
TABtouch🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.88%EV -9.13%E -4.71%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.25%EV -8.75%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -9.20%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-06 06:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.64%EV -9.60%E -4.97%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -10.64%E -3.43%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-06 06:30
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.64%EV -9.60%E -4.97%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -10.64%E -3.43%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-06 06:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.64%EV -9.60%E -4.97%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -10.64%E -3.43%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-06 06:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.