The School of Odds
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Juventude v Goiás

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juventude (Local)

Prediction 40.92%2.44fair odd
EV -5.89%
Edge -2.56%
Kelly -4.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.70%40.85%40.79%41.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.252.252.3045.45%44.37%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Goiás (Visit)

Prediction 29.68%3.37fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.63%29.68%29.61%30.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.113.103.2533.33%32.18%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.40%3.40fair odd
EV -5.91%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.92%29.48%29.60%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.073.103.2035.71%32.56%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Juventude (Local): 40.92%; Goiás (Visit): 29.68%; Draw: 29.40%. For Goiás (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -3.55%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-07 11:20
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.00%E -2.58%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-07 07:15
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.00%E -2.58%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-07 07:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.00%E -2.58%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-07 07:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.00%E -2.58%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-07 07:20
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -7.93%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.51%E -2.07%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-08 03:29
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.93%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -3.55%E -1.09%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-07 07:25
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.93%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.00%E -2.58%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-07 07:20
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.93%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -8.00%E -2.58%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-07 14:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.93%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -8.00%E -2.58%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-07 19:15
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.03%E -1.57%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-07 07:24
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.03%E -1.57%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-07 19:04
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-08 22:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.70%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.11%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.19%EV -17.67%E -6.31%K -9.82%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-09 06:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.